Economic Change and Restructuring

, Volume 46, Issue 1, pp 9–24 | Cite as

China’s growth adjustment: moderation and structural changes

Article

Abstract

The recent slowdown in the Chinese economy is interpreted in two dimensions: a long-run, structural shift toward a moderation in China’s earlier high growth pace, and a short-run, mainly cyclical, adjustment to the earlier economic overheating. Main causes of the long-run shift are export deceleration, rising wage compensation, and higher energy import dependence, which all tend to lead Chinese investment growth and economic growth to scale down now and in the future, though possibly continuing on a fairly high pace around 8 %. On the other hand, the short-run one is a correction process, often complicated by external shocks. When policy over-reacts, the process of growth moderation—the long-run shift—would be possibly delayed. A more prudent macroeconomic policy should help China to carry through the task of growth adjustment. The process also bears significant implications for structural changes and rebalancing: convergence between consumption growth and investment growth; convergence between import and export growths; convergence in economic growth between China’s inland and coastal regions.

Keywords

Return to investment Growth adjustment Soft landing Re-balancing 

JEL Classifications

O11 E6 N1 E24 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Economic Research InstituteChina Reform FoundationBeijingChina
  2. 2.Department of Finance, School of Economics and BusinessBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Department of Finance, School of Economics and ManagementBeihang UniversityBeijingChina

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