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Economic Change and Restructuring

, Volume 47, Issue 1, pp 1–39 | Cite as

A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

  • Gilles DufrenotEmail author
  • Adelya Ospanova
  • Alain Sand-Zantman
Article

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy.

Keywords

Transition economies Kazakhstan Macroeconomic stabilization Central Asian CIS countries 

JEL Classification

O11 P20 P51 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gilles Dufrenot
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
    Email author
  • Adelya Ospanova
    • 1
    • 4
  • Alain Sand-Zantman
    • 5
  1. 1.Aix-Marseille Université (AMSE)Aix-en-ProvenceFrance
  2. 2.Banque de FranceParisFrance
  3. 3.CEPIIParisFrance
  4. 4.DEFILes Milles, Aix-en-ProvenceFrance
  5. 5.GATE Lyon Saint Etienne (CNRS: UMR5824—Université Lumière Lyon II—Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon)Lyon CedexFrance

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