Economic Change and Restructuring

, Volume 42, Issue 1–2, pp 1–24 | Cite as

Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus

Article

Abstract

This paper aims to study the effects of a possible Russia-European Union (EU) free-trade agreement (FTA), in Russia itself and in the other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The paper also presents estimations of the effects of external shocks on the CIS country that has closest trade relations with Russia, the Republic of Belarus. The paper is organized as follows. Section 1 starts with a brief description of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model used herein. The current status of trade flows between the EU, Russia, and the CIS are presented in Sect. 2. In Sect. 3, the effects of a EU-Russia FTA are simulated on a benchmark of an enlarged EU and a Russia that is a World Trade Organization (WTO) member. Section 4 describes the trade relations between Russia and Belarus and the effects of a gas price shock. The work concludes that a FTA with the EU would yield positive results for Russia and Belarus.

Keywords

CGE Trade Transition economies 

JEL Classifications

C68 F12 P23 

References

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Copyright information

© European Communities 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Research CenterInstitute for Privatization and ManagementMinskBelarus
  2. 2.Kiel Institute for World EconomicsKiel UniversityKielGermany
  3. 3.Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean CommissionBrusselsBelgium

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