Economic Change and Restructuring

, Volume 42, Issue 1–2, pp 1–24 | Cite as

Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus

  • Irina TochitskayaEmail author
  • Lúcio Vinhas de Souza


This paper aims to study the effects of a possible Russia-European Union (EU) free-trade agreement (FTA), in Russia itself and in the other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The paper also presents estimations of the effects of external shocks on the CIS country that has closest trade relations with Russia, the Republic of Belarus. The paper is organized as follows. Section 1 starts with a brief description of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model used herein. The current status of trade flows between the EU, Russia, and the CIS are presented in Sect. 2. In Sect. 3, the effects of a EU-Russia FTA are simulated on a benchmark of an enlarged EU and a Russia that is a World Trade Organization (WTO) member. Section 4 describes the trade relations between Russia and Belarus and the effects of a gas price shock. The work concludes that a FTA with the EU would yield positive results for Russia and Belarus.


CGE Trade Transition economies 

JEL Classifications

C68 F12 P23 


  1. Alekseev A, Sokolov D, Tourdyeva N, Yudaeva K (2004) Estimating the effects of EU enlargement, WTO accession and the formation of FTA with EU or CIS on the Russian economy. Mimeo, NES-CEFIRGoogle Scholar
  2. Dodini M, Vinhas de Souza L (2006) Arab countries’ participation in the multilateral trade system at the critical juncture of the Doha development agenda. Mimeo, European Commission, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  3. Gatovsky A, Kashinskaya I (2006) Belarusian trade in energy goods. MimeoGoogle Scholar
  4. Hertel T, Tsigas M (1997) Structure of the GTAP model, chap 2. In: Hertel T (ed) Global trade analysis: modeling and applications. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  5. IMF (2005) Republic of Belarus: selected issues, country report no. 05/217. Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  6. Jesper J, Rutherford T, Tarr D (2002) Economy-wide effects of Russia’s accession to the WTO. In: SIDA-CEFIR conference, June 24–25Google Scholar
  7. Lysenko T, Vinhas de Souza L (2007) The effects of energy price shocks on growth and macroeconomic stability in selected energy-importing CIS countries, occasional paper no. 30. European Commission, Brussels, pp 3–23Google Scholar
  8. Pavel F, Tochitskaya I (2005) The economic impact of Belarus accession to the WTO: a quantitative assessment. In: International conference proceedings “Belarus WTO accession: problems and perspectives”, Minsk.
  9. Pearson K, Horridge M (2005) Hands-on computing with RunGTAP and WinGEM to introduce GTAP and GEMPACK. MimeoGoogle Scholar
  10. Schiff M, Winters L (2003) Regional integration and development. World Bank and Oxford University PressGoogle Scholar
  11. Sulamaa P, Widgren M (2002) EU enlargement and the opening of Russia: lessons from the GTAP reference model. The research institute of the Finnish Economy, no. 11Google Scholar
  12. Tochitskaya I (2003) Regional economic integration and technology diffusion: the case of Belarus. ECOWESTGoogle Scholar
  13. Vinhas de Souza L (2004) A wider Europe: trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian federation, working papers series, no. 249. CASE, PolandGoogle Scholar
  14. Vinhas de Souza L (2006) Effects of gas price increases in CIS countries: the case of Ukraine. Research note. European commission, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  15. Vinhas de Souza L (2008) Russia: a different country. CEPS paperback books series. CEPS, Brussels, Belgium.
  16. Vinhas de Souza L, Bakanova M (2002) Trade and growth under limited liberalization: the case of Belarus, Tinbergen institute discussion paper no. TI 2002-053/2. The NetherlandsGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© European Communities 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Research CenterInstitute for Privatization and ManagementMinskBelarus
  2. 2.Kiel Institute for World EconomicsKiel UniversityKielGermany
  3. 3.Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean CommissionBrusselsBelgium

Personalised recommendations