Economic Change and Restructuring

, Volume 39, Issue 1–2, pp 85–103

Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?

  • Balázs Égert
  • Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez
  • Evžen Kočenda
  • Amalia Morales-Zumaquero
Article

Abstract

This paper extends the sparse existing literature on structural breaks in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe by analyzing structural breaks in the intercept, trend and variance of monthly key macroeconomic variables, such as industrial production, inflation, monetary aggregates, nominal exchange rates and series related to the labor market. Using the Bayesian procedure developed by Wang and Zivot (2000, A Bayesian time series model of multiple structural changes in level, trend and variance. J Busi Econom 18:374–386), we provide strong evidence in favor of multiple structural breaks in the series under study. As most of the existing empirical literature on European emerging markets does not sufficiently deal with structural breaks, the instability found in this paper has important implications for macro-econometric modeling as well as the ensuing recommendations for economic policy.

Keywords

Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries Multiple structural breaks Volatility 

JEL Classifications

C11 E31 E51 F31 J21 J30 P0 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Balázs Égert
    • 1
  • Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez
    • 2
  • Evžen Kočenda
    • 3
  • Amalia Morales-Zumaquero
    • 4
  1. 1.Oesterreichische NationalbankEconomiX at the University of Paris X-Nanterre and the William Davidson InstituteViennaAustria
  2. 2.University of SalamancaSalamancaSpain
  3. 3.CERGE-EICharles University and Academy of Sciences, WDI, CEPRPrague 1Czech Republic
  4. 4.University of Málaga and Centro de Estudios AndalucesMalagaSpain

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