Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 57, Issue 4, pp 505–525 | Cite as

Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030

  • A. Mosnier
  • P. Havlík
  • M. Obersteiner
  • K. Aoki
  • E. Schmid
  • S. Fritz
  • I. McCallum
  • S. Leduc


The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.


Congo Basin Deforestation Infrastructures Land use change  Partial equilibrium model REDD+ 



African Infrastructure Country Database


Central African Republic

\(\text{ CO}_{2}\)

Carbon dioxyde


Carbon dioxyde equivalent


Democratic Republic of Congo


Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model


Food and Agriculture Organization


Forest Resources Assessment


Global forest model


Greenhouse gas


GLObal BIOsphere Management model


Giga tonne


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


Million hectares


Observatory for the Forests of Central Africa


Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries



This study was funded by the World Bank under the contract 7151363. We want to thank Carole Megevand and Loïc Braune from the World Bank and Anne Martinet from ONFI for their support. Finally, we are thankful to the participants of the two workshops organized in Douala in November 2009 and June 2010 for their precious feedbacks on the study.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Mosnier
    • 1
    • 2
  • P. Havlík
    • 1
  • M. Obersteiner
    • 1
  • K. Aoki
    • 3
  • E. Schmid
    • 2
  • S. Fritz
    • 1
  • I. McCallum
    • 1
  • S. Leduc
    • 1
  1. 1.Ecosystems Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.University of Natural Resources and Applied Life SciencesViennaAustria
  3. 3.United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)ViennaAustria

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