Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 57, Issue 4, pp 505–525

Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030

  • A. Mosnier
  • P. Havlík
  • M. Obersteiner
  • K. Aoki
  • E. Schmid
  • S. Fritz
  • I. McCallum
  • S. Leduc
Article

Abstract

The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.

Keywords

Congo Basin Deforestation Infrastructures Land use change  Partial equilibrium model REDD+ 

Abbreviation

AICD

African Infrastructure Country Database

CAR

Central African Republic

\(\text{ CO}_{2}\)

Carbon dioxyde

CO\(_2\)e

Carbon dioxyde equivalent

DRC

Democratic Republic of Congo

EPIC

Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

FRA

Forest Resources Assessment

G4M

Global forest model

GHG

Greenhouse gas

GLOBIOM

GLObal BIOsphere Management model

GT

Giga tonne

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Mha

Million hectares

OFAC

Observatory for the Forests of Central Africa

REDD+

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Mosnier
    • 1
    • 2
  • P. Havlík
    • 1
  • M. Obersteiner
    • 1
  • K. Aoki
    • 3
  • E. Schmid
    • 2
  • S. Fritz
    • 1
  • I. McCallum
    • 1
  • S. Leduc
    • 1
  1. 1.Ecosystems Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.University of Natural Resources and Applied Life SciencesViennaAustria
  3. 3.United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)ViennaAustria

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