Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 43, Issue 3, pp 313–332

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

  • S. Niggol Seo
  • Robert Mendelsohn
  • Ariel Dinar
  • Rashid Hassan
  • Pradeep Kurukulasuriya


This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future.


Climate change Economic impacts Agriculture Africa AEZ 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. Niggol Seo
    • 1
    • 2
  • Robert Mendelsohn
    • 3
  • Ariel Dinar
    • 4
    • 5
  • Rashid Hassan
    • 6
    • 7
  • Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
    • 8
  1. 1.Basque Center for Climate ChangeBilbaoSpain
  2. 2.Research consultant to the World Bank; Research AssociateYale UniversityBilbaoSpain
  3. 3.School of Forestry and Environmental StudiesYale UniversityNew HavenUSA
  4. 4.Department of Environmental Sciences and Water Science and Policy CenterUniversity of CaliforniaRiversideUSA
  5. 5.Development Economics Research GroupWorld BankWashingtonUSA
  6. 6.Department of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of PretoriaPretoriaSouth Africa
  7. 7.Center for Environmental Economics for AfricaUniversity of PretoriaPretoriaSouth Africa
  8. 8.Energy and Environment Group, Bureau of Development PolicyUnited Nations Development ProgrammeNew YorkUSA

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