Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work
- 33 Downloads
- 2 Citations
Abstract
The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable.
In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research.
Key words
stochastic control policy uncertainty macroeconomic policyPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Amman, H. M. and Kendrick, D. A. (1999). Should macroeconomic policy makers consider parameter covariances? Computational Economics, Vol. 14(3), 263–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Amman, H. M. and Kendrick, D.A. (1999). The DUALI/DUALPC software for optimal control models: User's guide. Center for Applied Research in Economics, The University of Texas at Austin, TP 9203, revised December 1999 (www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Kendrick/).Google Scholar
- Amman, H. M., Kendrick, D. A. and Neudecker, H. (1995). Numercial Steady State Solutions for Nonlinear Dynamic Optimization Models (unpublished).Google Scholar
- Aoki, M. (1967). Optimization of Stochastic Systems, Academic Press, New York.Google Scholar
- Bertsekas, D. (1995). Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Athena Scientific, Belmont, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
- Brainard, W. (1967). Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy. American Economic Review, 57(2), 411–425.Google Scholar
- Clarida, R. Gali, j. and Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, XXXVII, 1661–1707.Google Scholar
- Craine, R. (1979). Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1, 59–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Chow, G. (1973). Effect of uncertainty on optimal control policies, International Economic Review, 14(3), 632–645.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Don, F. J. H. (1983). Uncertainty and the vigor of policy: A stronger result. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 6, 187–191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Gonzalez, F. and Rodriguez, A. (2003). Robust Control: A note on the response of the control to changes in the “free” parameter. Economics Letters.Google Scholar
- Gonzalez, F. and Rodriguez, A. (2004) Robust control: A note on the response of the control to changes in the “free” parameter conditional on the character of nature. Computational Economics, 24(3) (forthcoming).Google Scholar
- Holly, S. and Hughes-Hallett, A. (1989). Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty, Cambridge University Press, New York.Google Scholar
- Johansen, L. (1973). Targets and instruments under uncertainty, in Economic structure and development: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen. H.C. Boss, H. Linnemann and P. de Wolff (Eds.), North-Holland.Google Scholar
- Johansen, L. (1978). Lectures on macroeconimic planning. Part 2, North-Holland.Google Scholar
- Kendrick, D. A. (1981). Stochastic control for economic models, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York (Also, the second edition (2002) is available at http://www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Kendrick).
- Mercado, P. R. (2004). The timing of uncertainty and the intensity of policy. Computational Economics, 23(4), 303–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mercado, P. R. and Kendrick, D. A. (1999). Computational methods for macro policy analysis: Hall and Taylor's model in DUALI, in Analyses in Macroeconomic Modelling, A. Hughes-Hallett and P.McAdam (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
- Mercado, R., P. and Kendrick, D. A. (2000). Caution in macroeconomic policy: Uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy. Economics Letters, 68(1).Google Scholar
- Pohjola, M. T. (1981). Uncertainty and the vigor of policy: Some implications of quadratic preferences. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 3, 299–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Rodriguez, A. (2004). Robust control: A note on the timing of model uncertainty Computational Economics, 24(3).Google Scholar
- Shupp, F. (1976a). Uncertainty and optimal stabilization policy. Journal of Public Economics 6, 243–253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Shupp, F. (1976b). Uncertainty and optimal policy intensity in fiscal and income policies. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 5 (2), 225–237.Google Scholar
- Turnovsky, S. (1975). Optimal choice of monetary instrument in a linear economic model with stochastic coefficients. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 7, 51–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wonham, W. M. (1969). Optimal stochastic control. Automatica 5, 113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Young, R. M. (1975). Certainty equivalence, First order certainty equivalence, stochastic control, and the covariance structure. Econometrica 43(3), 421–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar