Shared legacies, disparate outcomes: why American south border cities turned the tables on crime and their Mexican sisters did not
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The article evaluates crime trends in south border American and Mexican sister cities using panel data analysis. The region offers a unique assessment opportunity since cities are characterized by shared cultural and historical legacies, institutional heterogeneity, and disparate crime outcomes. Higher homicide rates on the Mexican side seem to result from deficient law enforcement. Higher population densities in Mexican cities appear to also be a factor. Cultural differences, on the other hand, have been decreasing, and apparently do not play a substantial role. The homicide rate dynamics show opportunistic clustering of criminal activity in Mexican cities, while no clustering is found on the American side. Crime also appears to spill from Mexican cities into American cities. Homicide rates on both sides of the border have been falling faster than countrywide rates, leading, in the case of American cities, and against stereotypes, to rates below the countrywide rate in 2001.
The author would like to thank A. Sachsida for insightful comments, J. Gerber and G. Hanson for kindly providing essential data, and the Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development at Texas A&M International University for financial support under the Texas Center Research Fellows Grant Program. Existing errors are nevertheless the sole responsibility of the author.
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