Advertisement

The psychological foundations of rational ignorance: biased heuristics and decision costs

  • Brad R. TaylorEmail author
Original Paper
First Online:
  • 10 Downloads

Abstract

Rational ignorance and related models of voter choice have been accused of psychological implausibility or even incoherence. Although such models run counter to folk psychological understandings of choice, this paper argues that they are consistent with widely-accepted dual process theories of cognition. Specifically, I suggest that political ignorance can be explained via a “default-interventionist” account in which a biased intuitive subsystem produces automatic responses which are overridden by rational reflection when the prospective costs of error are significant. This is consistent with rational ignorance and related theories of political ignorance and bias. Providing stronger psychological foundations for rational ignorance also suggests new ways in which the theory might be developed to increase its predictive, analytic, and evaluative power.

Keywords

Rational ignorance Rational irrationality Behavioural political economy Dual process theory Heuristics and biases 

JEL classification

D72 D83 D9 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

References

  1. Alter, A. L., Oppenheimer, D. M., Epley, N., & Eyre, R. N. (2007). Overcoming intuition: Metacognitive difficulty activates analytic reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,136(4), 569–576.  https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.136.4.569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica,44(3), 211–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bennett, S. E., & Friedman, J. (2008). The irrelevance of economic theory to understanding economic ignorance. Critical Review,20(3), 195–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bullock, J. G., Gerber, A. S., Hill, S. J., & Huber, G. A. (2015). Partisan bias in factual beliefs about politics. Quarterly Journal of Political Science,10(4), 519–578.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Camerer, C. F., & Hogarth, R. M. (1999). The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor-production framework. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,19(1–3), 7–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Camerer, C. F., & Kunreuther, H. (1989). Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,8(4), 565–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Caplan, B. (2007). The myth of the rational voter. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  8. Congleton, R. D. (2001). Rational ignorance, rational voter expectations, and public policy: A discrete informational foundation for fiscal illusion. Public Choice,107(1–2), 35–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Congleton, R. D. (2019). Behavioral economics and the Virginia school of political economy: Overlaps and complementarities. Public Choice.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00679-3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cummings, R. G., Elliott, S., Harrison, G. W., & Murphy, J. (1997). Are hypothetical referenda incentive compatible? Journal of Political Economy,105(3), 609–621.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Davidson, S. (2018). Populism and fiscal illusion. Australian Economic Review,51(3), 418–425.  https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dennett, D. C. (1991). Real patterns. The Journal of Philosophy,88(1), 27–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
  14. Druckman, J. N. (2001). The implications of framing effects for citizen competence. Political Behavior,23(3), 225–256.  https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015006907312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Elster, J., & Landemore, H. (2008). Ideology and dystopia. Critical Review,20(3), 273–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Evans, J. S. (2007). Hypothetical thinking: Dual processes in reasoning and judgement (Vol. 3). London: Psychology Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Evans, A. J., & Friedman, J. (2011). “search” Vs. “browse”: A theory of error grounded in radical (not Rational) ignorance. Critical Review,23(1–2), 73–104.  https://doi.org/10.1080/08913811.2011.574471.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Farrell, A., Goh, J., & White, B. (2012). The effect of performance-based incentive contracts on system 1 and system 2 processing in affective decision contexts: FMRI and behavioral evidence. Available at SSRN 2111452. Retrieved November 20, 2019, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2111452.
  19. Farrell, A. M., Goh, J. O., & White, B. J. (2014). The effect of performance-based incentive contracts on system 1 and system 2 processing in affective decision contexts: FMRI and behavioral evidence. The Accounting Review,89(6), 1979–2010.  https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50852.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Fischer, A. J. (1996). A further experimental study of expressive voting. Public Choice,88(1), 171–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences,9(2), 127–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Friedman, M. (1953). The methodology of positive economics. Essays in positive economics (pp. 3–47). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  23. Gelman, A., Silver, N., & Edlin, A. (2009). What is the probability your vote will make a difference? Economic Inquiry,50(2), 321–326.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Gersbach, H. (1995). Information efficiency and majority decisions. Social Choice and Welfare,12(4), 363–370.  https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00186280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Gilbert, D. T. (1999). What the mind’s not. In S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.), Dual-process theories in social psychology (pp. 3–11). New York: Guilford Press.Google Scholar
  26. Grewenig, E., Lergetporer, P., Werner, K., & Smarzynska Javorcik, B. (2019). Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. ID 3357133). Retrieved November 20, 2019, from Social Science Research Network website: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3357133.
  27. Hindmoor, A. M., & Taylor, B. R. (2015). Rational choice (2nd ed.). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Jamal, K., & Sunder, S. (1991). Money vs gaming: Effects of salient monetary payments in double oral auctions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,49(1), 151–166.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90046-V.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar Straus & Giroux.Google Scholar
  30. Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 49–81). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kahneman, D., & Peavler, W. S. (1969). Incentive effects and pupillary changes in association learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology,79(2p1), 312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Klayman, J. (1995). Varieties of confirmation bias. Psychology of Learning and Motivation,32, 385–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Klayman, J., & Ha, Y.-W. (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review,94(2), 211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Krupnikov, Y., Levine, A. S., Lupia, A., & Prior, M. (2006). Public ignorance and estate tax repeal: The effect of partisan differences and survey incentives. National Tax Journal,59(3), 425–437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin,108(3), 480–498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kunreuther, H., Meyer, R., Zeckhauser, R., Slovic, P., Schwartz, B., Schade, C., et al. (2002). High stakes decision making: Normative, descriptive and prescriptive considerations. Marketing Letters,13(3), 259–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lee, J. (2007). Repetition and financial incentives in economics experiments. Journal of Economic Surveys,21(3), 628–681.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00516.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Libby, R., & Lipe, M. G. (1992). Incentives, effort, and the cognitive processes involved in accounting-related judgments. Journal of Accounting Research,30(2), 249–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Lodge, M., & Taber, C. S. (2000). Three steps toward a theory of motivated political reasoning. In A. Lupia, M. D. McCubbins, & S. Popkin (Eds.), Elements of reason: Cognition, choice, and the bounds of rationality (pp. 183–213). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin,127(2), 267–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus encyclopedias: Information and voting behavior in California insurance reform elections. American Political Science Review,88(1), 63–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lupia, A., & McCubbins, M. D. (1998). The democratic dilemma: Can citizens learn what they need to know?. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  43. Mackie, G. (2012). Rational ignorance and beyond. In H. Landemore & J. Elster (Eds.), Collective wisdom: Principles and mechanisms (pp. 290–318). New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Morewedge, C. K., & Kahneman, D. (2010). Associative processes in intuitive judgment. Trends in Cognitive Sciences,14(10), 435–440.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Morton, R. B. (1999). Methods and models: A guide to the empirical analysis of formal models in political science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Murphy, R. H. (2016). The willingness-to-pay for Caplanian irrationality. Rationality and Society,28(1), 52–82.  https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463115605478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Popkin, S. L. (1995). Information shortcuts and the reasoning voter. In B. Grofman (Ed.), Information, participation and choice: An economic theory of democracy in perspective (pp. 17–35). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
  48. Prato, C., & Wolton, S. (2018). Rational ignorance, populism, and reform. European Journal of Political Economy,55, 119–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Prior, M., & Lupia, A. (2008). Money, time, and political knowledge: Distinguishing quick recall and political learning skills. American Journal of Political Science,52(1), 169–183.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00306.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Prior, M., Sood, G., & Khanna, K. (2015). You cannot be serious: The impact of accuracy incentives on partisan bias in reports of economic perceptions. Quarterly Journal of Political Science,10(4), 489–518.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Riker, W. H., & Ordeshook, P. C. (1968). A theory of the calculus of voting. The American Political Science Review,62(1), 25–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Schumpeter, J. A. (2003). Capitalism, socialism and democracy. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  53. Shanks, D. R., Tunney, R. J., & McCarthy, J. D. (2002). A re-examination of probability matching and rational choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,15(3), 233–250.  https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Shayo, M., & Harel, A. (2012). Non-consequentialist voting. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,81(1), 299–313.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.021.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002). Rational actors or rational fools: Implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics. Journal of Socio-Economics,31(4), 329–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2007). The affect heuristic. European Journal of Operational Research,177(3), 1333–1352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Smith, V. L. (2008). Rationality in economics: Constructivst and ecological forms. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  58. Smith, V. L., & Walker, J. M. (1993a). Monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economics. Economic Inquiry,31(2), 245–261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Smith, V. L., & Walker, J. M. (1993b). Rewards, experience and decision costs in first price auctions. Economic Inquiry,31(2), 237–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Somin, I. (2016). Democracy and political ignorance: Why smaller government is smarter (2nd ed.). Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
  61. Stanovich, K. E. (1999). Who is rational?: Studies of individual differences in reasoning. Mahwah: Elrbaum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Stigler, G. J. (1961). The economics of information. The Journal of Political Economy,69(3), 213–225.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Taber, C. S., & Lodge, M. (2006). Motivated skepticism in the evaluation of political beliefs. American Journal of Political Science,50(3), 755–769.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Taber, C. S., Lodge, M., & Glathar, J. (2001). The motivated construction of political judgments. In J. H. Kuklinski (Ed.), Citizens and politics: Perspectives from political psychology (pp. 198–226). London: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology,5(2), 207–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science,185(4157), 1124–1131.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science,211(4481), 453.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review,90(4), 293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business,59(S4), 251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Tversky, A., & Simonson, I. (1993). Context-dependent preferences. Management Science,39(10), 1179–1189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Wagner, R. E. (1976). Revenue structure, fiscal illusion, and budgetary choice. Public Choice,25(1), 45–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Wagner, R. E., & Weber, W. E. (1977). Wagner’s law, fiscal institutions, and the growth of government. National Tax Journal,30(1), 59–68.Google Scholar
  73. Winkielman, P., Zajonc, R. B., & Schwarz, N. (1997). Subliminal affective priming resists attributional interventions. Cognition and Emotion,11(4), 433–465.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Wittman, D. (1989). Why democracies produce efficient results. The Journal of Political Economy,97(6), 1395–1424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Wittman, D. (1995). The myth of democratic failure: Why political institutions are efficient. Chicago: University of Chicago press.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of CommerceUniversity of Southern QueenslandSpringfieldAustralia

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options