Cluster Computing

, Volume 22, Supplement 4, pp 10347–10359 | Cite as

A universal power-law model for wind speed uncertainty

  • Jie Wan
  • Jinfu LiuEmail author
  • Guorui Ren
  • Yufeng GuoEmail author
  • Wenbo Hao
  • Jilai Yu
  • Daren Yu


The uncertainty is a significant characteristic of wind speed in wind engineering field. Especially, it has brought much more problems to the grid in safe and efficient utilization of large scale wind power. And there is urgent need of systematic and perfect models that can describe windspeed uncertainty in grid scheduling and controlling. In this paper, a universal power-law model is proposed for properly depicting the uncertainty of both wind speed and wind power. According to the turbulence nature of wind uncertainty, the uncertainty model of wind speed is firstly obtained by using wavelet multi-scale transform algorithm for its tight supporting characteristic, which is more reasonable than the traditional algorithm of getting the mean valve and the variance valve of the time series. And the turbulent intensity model is further improved by a power-law model, which is suitable for much more kinds of turbulence on complex geographical conditions than that proposed in current international IEC standard with the sufficient actual data. In physically speaking, the model improvement with three parameters is consistent with turbulence development mechanism. Moreover, the uncertainty modeling method of wind power is developed based on the universal power-law model, which is not only suitable for the power of single wind turbine, but also suitable for the power of whole wind farm. It’s very importance that the wind speed uncertainty model is extended to model the power uncertainty of wind turbine and farm, in especial its or their power output is usually limited for human adjustment control. It has a certain significance to the real-time dispatch and optimal control of the renewable energy power system.


Wind speed Wind power Uncertainty Wavelet transform Turbulence intensity Universal power-law model Turbulence mechanism 



This work was supported by the Key R&D Project of China under Grant 2017YFB0902100 and the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 51676054.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.


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© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Postdoctoral Research Station of Electrical EngineeringHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina
  2. 2.School of Electrical Engineering&AutomationHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina
  3. 3.School of Energy Science and EngineeringHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina
  4. 4.Heilongjiang Electric Power Research InstituteHarbinChina

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