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Cluster Computing

, Volume 22, Supplement 5, pp 11129–11141 | Cite as

The power load’s signal analysis and short-term prediction based on wavelet decomposition

  • Huan Wang
  • Min OuyangEmail author
  • Zhibing Wang
  • Ruishi Liang
  • Xin Zhou
Article
  • 522 Downloads

Abstract

The complex signal represented by power load is affected by many factors, so the signal components are very complicated. So that, it is difficult to obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy by using a single model for the complex signal. In this case, wavelet decomposition is used to decompose the power load into a series of sub signals. The low frequency sub signal is remarkably periodic, and the high frequency sub signals can prove to be chaotic signals. Then the signals of different characteristics are predicted by different models. For the low frequency sub signal, the support vector machine (SVM) is adopted. In SVM model, air temperature and week attributes are included in model inputs. Especially the week attribute is represented by a 3-bit binary encoding, which represents Monday to Sunday. For the chaotic high frequency sub signals, the chaotic local prediction (CLP) model is adopted. In CLP model, the embedding dimension and time delay are key parameters, which determines the prediction accuracy. In order to find the optimal parameters, a segmentation validation algorithm is proposed in this paper. The algorithm segments the known power load according to the time sequence. Then, based on the segmentation data, the optimal parameters are chosen based on the prediction accuracy. Compared with a single model, the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is improved obviously, which proves the effectiveness.

Keywords

Power load Wavelet transform Support vector machine Chaotic local prediction Segmentation validation 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61300095 and 11604094), Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China (Grant No. 2017JJ2068) and the Science Research Foundation of Hunan Provincial Education Department (Grant Nos. 16C0479 and 14A037).

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Huan Wang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Min Ouyang
    • 2
    • 3
    Email author
  • Zhibing Wang
    • 2
    • 3
  • Ruishi Liang
    • 4
  • Xin Zhou
    • 2
    • 5
  1. 1.School of Electron and Information EngineeringUniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Zhongshan InstituteZhongshanChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Intelligent Information Perception and Processing Technology (Hunan Province)ZhuzhouChina
  3. 3.School of ComputerHunan University of TechnologyZhuzhouChina
  4. 4.School of Computer EngineeringUniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Zhongshan InstituteZhongshanChina
  5. 5.School of SciencesHunan University of TechnologyZhuzhouChina

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