Abstract
The extent to which Americans—especially Republicans—believe in anthropogenic climate change (ACC) has recently been the subject of high profile academic and popular disagreement. We offer a novel framework, and experimental data, for making sense of this debate. Using a large (N = 7,019) and demographically diverse sample of US adults, we compare several widely used methods for measuring belief in ACC. We find that seemingly trivial decisions made when constructing questions can, in some cases, significantly alter the proportion of the American public who appear to believe in human-caused climate change. Critically, we find that some common measurement practices may nearly double estimates of Republicans’ acceptance of human-caused climate change. We conclude by discussing how this work can help improve the consumption of research on climate opinion.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.


References
Benjamin D, Por HH, Budescu D (2017) Climate change versus global warming: who is susceptible to the framing of climate change? Environ Behav 49(7):745–770
Brenan M, Saad L (2018) Global warming concern steady despite some partisan shifts. Gallup. Retrieved from: https://news.gallup.com/poll/231530/global-warming-concern-steady-despite-partisan-shifts.aspx
Capstick S, Whitmarsh L, Poortinga W, Pidgeon N, Upham P (2015) International trends in public perceptions of climate change over the past quarter century. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 6(1):35–61
Coppock A, McClellan OA (2019) Validating the demographic, political, psychological, and experimental results obtained from a new source of online survey respondents. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168018822174
Funk C, Kennedy B (2016) The politics of climate. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from: http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/10/04/the-politics-of-climate/
Greenhill M, Leviston Z, Leonard R, Walker I (2014) Assessing climate change beliefs: response effects of question wording and response alternatives. Public Underst Sci 23(8):947–965
Groothuis PA, Whitehead JC (2002) Does don’t know mean no? Analysis of ‘don’t know’ responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions. Appl Econ 34(15):1935–1940
Heerwegh D (2009) Mode differences between face-to-face and web surveys: an experimental investigation of data quality and social desirability effects. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 21(1):111–121
Kahan DM (2015) Climate-science communication and the measurement problem. Polit Psychol 36:1–43
Kahan D (2017) The “Gateway Belief” illusion: reanalyzing the results of a scientific-consensus messaging study. JCOM: J Sci Commun 16:1b
Kahan DM, Peters E, Wittlin M, Slovic P, Ouellette LL, Braman D, Mandel G (2012) The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nat Clim Chang 2(10):732
Krosnick JA (1991) Response strategies for coping with the cognitive demands of attitude measures in surveys. Appl Cogn Psychol 5(3):213–236
Krosnick JA (2018) Questionnaire design. In: The Palgrave handbook of survey research. Palgrave Macmillan, pp 439–455
Krosnick JA, Berent MK (1993) Comparisons of party identification and policy preferences: The impact of survey question format. Am J Polit Sci, 941–964
Krosnick JA, Malhotra N, Mittal U (2014) Public misunderstanding of political facts: how question wording affected estimates of partisan differences in birtherism. Public Opin Q 78(1):147–165
Kunda Z (1990) The case for motivated reasoning. Psychol Bull 108(3):480
Kwak N, Radler B (2002) A comparison between mail and web surveys: response pattern, respondent profile, and data quality. J Off Stat 18(2):257
Leiserowitz A, Maibach E, Roser-Renouf C, Rosenthal S, Cutler M, Kotcher J (2018) Politics & global warming, March 2018. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale program on climate change communication
Maitland A, Tourangeau R, Sun H (2018) Separating science knowledge from religious belief two approaches for reducing the effect of identity on survey responses. Public opinion quarterly, nfx049
McAdam D (2017) Social movement theory and the prospects for climate change activism in the United States. Annu Rev Polit Sci 20:189–208
McCright AM, Dunlap RE (2011) The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public’s views of global warming, 2001–2010. Sociol Q 52 (2):155–194
Mutz DC (2011) Population-based survey experiments. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Nadler JT, Weston R, Voyles EC (2015) Stuck in the middle: the use and interpretation of mid-points in items on questionnaires. J Gen Psychol 142(2):71–89
Pasek J (2017) It’s not my consensus: motivated reasoning and the sources of scientific illiteracy. Public Understanding of Science 0963662517733681
Polk E (2018) Communicating climate change where did we go wrong, how can we do better?. Handbook of communication for development and social change, pp 1–19
Schuldt JP, Roh S, Schwarz N (2015) Questionnaire design effects in climate change surveys: Implications for the partisan divide. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658(1):67–85
Schuldt JP, Enns PK, Cavaliere V (2017) Does the label really matter? Evidence that the US public continues to doubt “global warming” more than “climate change”. Clim Chang 143(1–2):271–280
Schuman H, Presser S (1981) Questions and answers in attitude surveys: experiments on question form, wording, and context. Sage, Newbury Park
van Boven L, Sherman D (2018) Actually, republicans do believe in climate change. New York Times
Van Boven L, Ehret PJ, Sherman DK (2018) Psychological barriers to bipartisan public support for climate policy. Perspect Psychol Sci 13(4):492–507
van der Linden SL, Leiserowitz AA, Feinberg GD, Maibach E (2015) The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence. PLoS ONE, p 10
Villar A, Krosnick JA (2011) Global warming vs. climate change, taxes vs. prices: does word choice matter? Clim Change 105(1):11–12
Whitmarsh L, Capstick S (2018) Perceptions of climate change. In: Psychology and climate change, pp 13–33
Author information
Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Motta, M., Chapman, D., Stecula, D. et al. An experimental examination of measurement disparities in public climate change beliefs. Climatic Change 154, 37–47 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02406-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date: