Abstract
Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on terrestrial vegetation. We show that rates of warming and the climate velocity of temperature are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Moisture is an additional constraint on vegetation, and in the tropics the climate velocity of precipitation dominates over that of temperature. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. The coupling of water and carbon cycles is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alton PB, North PR, Los SO (2007) The impact of diffuse sunlight on canopy light-use efficiency, gross photosynthetic product and net ecosystem exchange in three forest biomes. Glob Chang Biol 13:776– 787
Bala G, Caldeira K, Mirin A, Wickett M, Delire C, Phillips TJ (2006) Biogeophysical effects of CO2 fertilization on global climate. Tellus B Chem Phys Meteorol 58(5):620–627
Bala G, Duffy PB, Taylor KE (2008) Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(22):7664–7669
Belda M, Holtanová E, Kalvová J, Halenka T (2016) Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections. Clim Res 71(1):17–31
Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol Lett 15(4):365–377
Betts RA, Boucher O, Collins M, Cox PM, Falloon PD, Gedney N, Hemmin DL, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Sexton DM, Webb MJ (2007) Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide. Nature 448(7157):1037–1041
Bonan GB, Levis S (2010) Quantifying carbon-nitrogen feedbacks in the Community Land Model (CLM4). Geophys Res Lett 37(7):L07401
Bonan GB, Levis S, Kergoat L, Oleson KW (2002) Landscapes as patches of plant functional types: an integrating concept for climate and ecosystem models. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 16(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001360
Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB, Moore P, Poloczanska ES, Brander KM, Brown C, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Holding J, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, O’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Schwing FB, Sydeman WJ, Richardson AJ (2011) The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334(6056):652–655
Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ, Molinos JG, Hoffmann A, Buckley LB, Moore PJ, Brown CJ, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, O’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Sydeman WJ, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Poloczanska ES (2014) Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507(7493):492–495
Caldeira K, Wood L (2008) Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical. Phys Eng Sci 366(1882):4039–4056
Cao L (2018) The effects of solar radiation management on the carbon cycle. Current Climate Change Reports 4(1):41–50
Cheng SJ, Bohrer G, Steiner AL, Hollinger DY, Suyker A, Phillips RP, Nadelhoffer KJ (2015) Variations in the influence of diffuse light on gross primary productivity in temperate ecosystems. Agric For Meteorol 201:98–110
Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol Evol 22(7):357–365
Collatz GJ, Ball JT, Grivet C, Berry JA (1991) Physiological and environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer. Agric For Meteorol 54:107–136
Crutzen PJ (2006) Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Clim Chang 77:211–220
Dagon K, Schrag DP (2016) Exploring the effects of solar radiation management on water cycling in a coupled land-atmosphere model. J Clim 29(7):2635–2650
Dagon K, Schrag DP (2017) Regional climate variability under model simulations of solar geoengineering. J Geophys Res: Atmos 122(22):12,106–12,121. 2017JD027110
Doutriaux-Boucher M, Webb MJ, Gregory JM, Boucher O (2009) Carbon dioxide induced stomatal closure increases radiative forcing via a rapid reduction in low cloud. Geophys Res Lett 36(2):L02703
Farquhar GD, von Caemmerer S, Berry JA (1980) A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species. Planta 149:78–90
Feng S, Ho C-H, Hu Q, Oglesby RJ, Jeong S-J, Kim B-M (2012) Evaluating observed and projected future climate changes for the Arctic using the koppen-Trewarthä climate classification. Clim Dyn 38(7):1359–1373
Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, Ho C -H, Li R, Tang Z (2014) Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Glob Planet Chang 112:41– 52
Fisher RA, Muszala S, Verteinstein M, Lawrence P, Xu C, McDowell NG, Knox RG, Koven C, Holm J, Rogers BM, Spessa A, Lawrence D, Bonan G (2015) Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED). Geosci Model Dev 8(11):3593–3619
Fraedrich K, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC (2001) Climate shifts during the last century. Clim Chang 50(4):405–417
Franks PJ, Adams MA, Amthor JS, Barbour MM, Berry JA, Ellsworth DS, Farquhar GD, Ghannoum O, Lloyd J, McDowell N, Norby RJ, Tissue DT, von Caemmerer S (2013) Sensitivity of plants to changing atmospheric CO2 concentration: from the geological past to the next century. New Phytol 197 (4):1077–1094
Fujino J, Nair R, Kainuma M, Masui T, Matsuoka Y (2006) Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using aim global model. Energy J 27:343–353
Fyfe JC, Cole JNS, Arora VK, Scinocca JF (2013) Biogeochemical carbon coupling influences global precipitation in geoengineering experiments. Geophys Res Lett 40(3):651–655
Gallardo C, Gil V, Tejeda C, Sánchez E, Gaertner MA (2016) Koppen-trewartha classification used to assess climate changes simulated by a regional climate model ensemble over South Americä. Clim Res 68(2-3):137–149
Glienke S, Irvine PJ, Lawrence MG (2015) The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the geoMIP. J Geophys Res: Atmos 120(19):10196–10213
Govindasamy B, Caldeira K (2000) Geoengineering Earth’s radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate change. Geophys Res Lett 27(14):2141–2144
Govindasamy B, Thompson S, Duffy PB, Caldeira K, Delire C (2002) Impact of geoengineering schemes on the terrestrial biosphere. Geophys Res Lett 29 (22):2061. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015911
Gu L, Baldocchi D, Verma SB, Black TA, Vesala T, Falge EM, Dowty PR (2002) Advantages of diffuse radiation for terrestrial ecosystem productivity. J Geophys Res 107(D6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001242
Higgins SI, Scheiter S (2012) Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally. Nature 488(7410):209–212
Irvine PJ, Ridgwell A, Lunt DJ (2010) Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Geophys Res Lett 37:L18702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044447
Irvine PJ, Boucher O, Kravitz B, Alterskjær K, Cole JNS, Ji D, Jones A, Lunt DJ, Moore JC, Muri H, Niemeier U, Robock A, Singh B, Tilmes S, Watanabe S, Yang S, Yoon J-H (2014) Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison of the GeoMIP ensemble and a perturbed parameter ensemble. J Geophys Res: Atmos 119(13):7946–7962
Ito A (2017) Solar radiation management and ecosystem functional responses. Clim Chang 142(1):53–66
Jones A, Haywood JM, Alterskjær K, Boucher O, Cole JNS, Curry CL, Irvine PJ, Ji D, Kravitz B, Kristjánsson JE, Moore JC, Niemeier U, Robock A, Schmidt H, Singh B, Tilmes S, Watanabe S, Yoon J-H (2013) The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J Geophys Res: Atmos 118(17):9743–9752
Kalidindi S, Bala G, Modak A, Caldeira K (2015) Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols. Clim Dyn 44(9):2909–2925
Keith DW, MacMartin DG (2015) A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering. Nat Clim Chang 5(3):201–206
Koven CD (2013) Boreal carbon loss due to poleward shift in low-carbon ecosystems. Nat Geosci 6:452–456
Kravitz B, Caldeira K, Boucher O, Robock A, Rasch PJ, Alterskjær K, Karam DB, Cole JNS, Curry CL, Haywood JM, Irvine PJ, Ji D, Jones A, Kristjánsson JE, Lunt DJ, Moore JC, Niemeier U, Schmidt H, Schulz M, Singh B, Tilmes S, Watanabe S, Yang S, Yoon J-H (2013) Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J Geophys Res 118(15):1–13
Kravitz B, Rasch PJ, Forster PM, Andrews T, Cole JNS, Irvine PJ, Ji D, Kristjánsson JE, Moore JC, Muri H, Niemeier U, Robock A, Singh B, Tilmes S, Watanabe S, Yoon J-H (2013) An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. J Geophys Res: Atmos 118 (23):13087–13102
Kravitz B, MacMartin DG, Robock A, Rasch PJ, Ricke KL, Cole JNS, Curry CL, Irvine PJ, Ji D, Keith DW, Kristjansson JE, Moore JC, Muri H, Singh B, Tilmes S, Watanabe S, Yang S, Yoon J-H (2014) A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering. Environ Res Lett 9(7):074013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013
Kravitz B, MacMartin DG, Rasch PJ, Jarvis AJ (2015) A new method of comparing forcing agents in climate models. J Clim 28(20):8203–8218
Lean J, Beer J, Bradley R (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 22(23):3195–3198
Lee E, Felzer BS, Kothavala Z (2013) Effects of nitrogen limitation on hydrological processes in CLM4-CN. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5(4):741–754
Leemans R (1990) Possible changes in natural vegetation patterns due to global warming. IIASA Working Paper WP-90-008 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria
Lewis SL, Malhi Y, Phillips OL (2004) Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 359(1443):437–462
Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462(7276):1052–1055
Luo T, Pan Y, Ouyang H, Shi P, Luo J, Yu Z, Lu Q (2004) Leaf area index and net primary productivity along subtropical to alpine gradients in the Tibetan Plateau. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 13(4):345–358
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, Kinoshita T, Nozawa T, Ishiwatari S, Kato E, Shukla PR, Yamagata Y, Kainuma M (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 wm−2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109(1):59
McCormack CG, Born W, Irvine PJ, Achterberg EP, Amano T, Ardron J, Foster PN, Gattuso J -P, Hawkins SJ, Hendy E, Kissling WD, Lluch-Cota SE, Murphy EJ, Ostle N, Owens NJP, Perry RI, Pörtner HO, Scholes RJ, Schurr FM, Schweiger O, Settele J, Smith RK, Smith S, Thompson J, Tittensor DP, van Kleunen M, Vivian C, Vohland K, Warren R, Watkinson AR, Widdicombe S, Williamson P, Woods E, Blackstock JJ, Sutherland WJ (2016) Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems, with priorities for future research. J Integr Environ Sci 13(2-4):103–128
McCusker KE, Armour KC, Bitz CM, Battisti DS (2014) Rapid and extensive warming following cessation of solar radiation management. Environ Res Lett 9 (2):024005
Meinshausen M, Raper SCB, Wigley TML (2011) Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: model description and calibration. Atmos Chem Phys 11(4):1417–1456
Mercado LM, Bellouin N, Sitch S, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Wild M, Cox PM (2003) Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Nature 458:1014–1017
Modak A, Bala G (2014) Sensitivity of simulated climate to latitudinal distribution of solar insolation reduction in solar radiation management. Atmos Chem Phys 14 (15):7769–7779
Muri H, Niemeier U, Kristjánsson JE (2015) Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening climate engineering. Geophys Res Lett 42(8):2951–2960
Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858
Myhre G, Highwood EJ, Shine KP, Stordal F (1998) New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys Res Lett 25(14):2715–2718
Naik V, Wuebbles DJ, Delucia EH, Foley JA (2003) Influence of geoengineered climate on the terrestrial biosphere. Environ Manag 32(3):373–381
Niemeier U, Schmidt H, Alterskjær K, Kristjánsson JE (2013) Solar irradiance reduction via climate engineering: Impact of different techniques on the energy balance and the hydrological cycle. J Geophys Res 118(21):11905–11917
Oleson KW, Lawrence DM, Bonan GB, Flanner MG, Kluzek E, Lawrence PJ, Levis S, Swenson SC, Thornton PE (2010) Technical Description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM). Technical Report TN-478+STR National Center for Atmospheric Research
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421(6918):37–42
Peng J, Dan L, Dong W (2014) Are there interactive effects of physiological and radiative forcing produced by increased CO2 concentration on changes of land hydrological cycle?. Glob Planet Chang 112:64–78
Proctor J, Hsiang S, Burney J, Burke M, Schlenker W (2018) Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions. Nature 560(7719):480–483
Rasch PJ, Crutzen PJ, Coleman DB (2008) Exploring the geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulfate aerosols: the role of particle size. Geophys Res Lett 35:L02809. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032179
Ricke KL, Morgan MG, Allen MR (2010) Regional climate response to solar-radiation management. Nat Geosci 3(8):537–541
Russell LM, Rasch PJ, Mace GM, Jackson RB, Shepherd J, Liss P, Leinen M, Schimel D, Vaughan NE, Janetos AC, Boyd PW, Norby RJ, Caldeira K, Merikanto J, Artaxo P, Melillo J, Morgan MG (2012) Ecosystem impacts of geoengineering: a review for developing a science plan. AMBIO 41(4):350–369
Schmidt H, Alterskjær K, Karam DB, Boucher O, Jones A, Kristjánsson JE, Niemeier U, Schulz M, Aaheim A, Benduhn F, Lawrence M, Timmreck C (2012) Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: Climate responses simulated by four earth system models. Earth Syst Dynam 3 (1):63–78
Shepherd J, Rayner S (2009) Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty. Policy Doc. 10/09 RS1636 The Royal Society
Thornton PE, Lamarque J-F, Rosenbloom NA, Mahowald NM (2007) Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability. Global Biogeochem Cycles 21:GB4018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002868
Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan A, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr FM, Sykes MT, Zimmermann NE (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 9(3):137–152. Space matters - Novel developments in plant ecology through spatial modelling
Tilmes S, Fasullo J, Lamarque J-F, Marsh DR, Mills M, Alterskjær K, Muri H, Kristjánsson JE, Boucher O, Schulz M, Cole JNS, Curry CL, Jones A, Haywood JM, Irvine PJ, Ji D, Moore JC, Karam DB, Kravitz B, Rasch PJ, Singh B, Yoon J-H, Niemeier U, Schmidt H, Robock A, Yang S, Watanabe S (2013) The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J Geophys Res: Atmos 118 (19):11036–11058
Tingley MP, Stine AR, Huybers P (2014) Temperature reconstructions from tree-ring densities overestimate volcanic cooling. Geophys Res Lett 41:7838–7845
Tjiputra JF, Grini A, Lee H (2016) Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon cycles. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 121(1):2–27
Trisos CH, Amatulli G, Gurevitch J, Robock A, Xia L, Zambri B (2018) Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination. Nature Ecology & Evolution 2:475–482
van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31
Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin J-M, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416(6879):389–395
Wolkovich EM, Cook BI, Allen JM, Crimmins TM, Betancourt JL, Travers SE, Pau S, Regetz J, Davies TJ, Kraft NJB, Ault TR, Bolmgren K, Mazer SJ, McCabe GJ, McGill BJ, Parmesan C, Salamin N, Schwartz MD, Cleland EE (2012) Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485(7399):494–497
Xia L, Robock A, Tilmes S, Neely RR III (2016) Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate. Atmos Chem Phys 16(3):1479–1489
Acknowledgements
We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for suggestions that improved the paper. The model simulations in this paper were run on the Odyssey cluster supported by the FAS Division of Science, Research Computing Group at Harvard University. We thank Zhiming Kuang for the use of his computational resources. Further data analysis was completed using the computing resources of the Climate and Global Dynamics Information Systems Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
Funding
This received funding from the NCAR Advanced Study Program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dagon, K., Schrag, D.P. Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation. Climatic Change 153, 235–251 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02387-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02387-9