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Climatic Change

, Volume 152, Issue 1, pp 179–193 | Cite as

Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

  • Helder FragaEmail author
  • Joaquim G. Pinto
  • João A. Santos
Article

Abstract

Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989–2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021–2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors.

Notes

Funding information

This work was funded by European Investment Funds (FEDER/COMPETE/POCI), POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958, and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), UID/AGR/04033/2013. The postdoctoral fellowship (SFRH/BPD/119461/2016) awarded to the first author is appreciated. JGP thanks the AXA fund for support. The INNOVINE&WINE project (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000038) co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund through NORTE 2020. Helder Fraga also thanks the FCT for CEECIND/00447/2017.

Supplementary material

10584_2018_2337_MOESM1_ESM.docx (16 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 16 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITABUniversidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD)Vila RealPortugal
  2. 2.Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)KarlsruheGermany

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