Climatic Change

, Volume 152, Issue 1, pp 179–193 | Cite as

Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

  • Helder FragaEmail author
  • Joaquim G. Pinto
  • João A. Santos


Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989–2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021–2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors.


Funding information

This work was funded by European Investment Funds (FEDER/COMPETE/POCI), POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958, and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), UID/AGR/04033/2013. The postdoctoral fellowship (SFRH/BPD/119461/2016) awarded to the first author is appreciated. JGP thanks the AXA fund for support. The INNOVINE&WINE project (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000038) co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund through NORTE 2020. Helder Fraga also thanks the FCT for CEECIND/00447/2017.

Supplementary material

10584_2018_2337_MOESM1_ESM.docx (16 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 16 kb)


  1. Anderson JL, et al. (1986) Validation of chill unit and flower bud phenology models for ‘Montmorency’ sour cherry. International Society for Horticultural Science (ISHS), Leuven, Belgium, pp. 71–78Google Scholar
  2. Atkinson CJ et al (2013) Declining chilling and its impact on temperate perennial crops. Envir expl Bot 91:48–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baldocchi D, Wong S (2008) Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California. Clim Chang 87:S153–S166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Benmoussa H et al (2017) Chilling and heat requirements for local and foreign almond (Prunus dulcis Mill.) cultivars in a warm Mediterranean location based on 30 years of phenology records. Agric For Meteorol 239:34–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bonofiglio T et al (2009) Evidences of olive pollination date variations in relation to spring temperature trends. Aerobiologia 25:227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Campoy JA et al (2011) Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: a review. Sci hort 130:357–372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cofiño AS, et al. (2017) The ECOMS user data gateway: towards seasonal forecast data provision and research reproducibility in the era of climate services. Climate ServicesGoogle Scholar
  8. De Melo-Abreu JP et al (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric For Meteorol 125:117–127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q Jl R met Soc 137:553–597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dokoozlian NK (1999) Chilling temperature and duration interact on the budbreak of ‘Perlette’ grapevine cuttings. HortScience 34:1054–1056Google Scholar
  11. Eurostat (2014) Agricultural production—orchardsGoogle Scholar
  12. Fila G et al (2012) Calibration and validation of grapevine budburst models using growth-room experiments as data source. Agric For Meteorol 160:69–79CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fishman S et al (1987) The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants—mathematical-analysis of a 2-step model involving a cooperative transition. J Theor Biol 124:473–483CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Fraga H et al (2016) Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections. J Agric Sci 154:795–811CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Garcia-Mozo H et al (2008) Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis. Theor Appl Clim 95:385CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. García de Cortázar-Atauri I et al (2017) Grapevine phenology in France: from past observations to future evolutions in the context of climate change. Oeno One 51:115–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Ghrab M et al (2014) Chilling trends in a warm production area and their impact on flowering and fruiting of peach trees. Sci. hort. 178:87–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33Google Scholar
  19. Gu S (2016) Growing degree hours—a simple, accurate, and precise protocol to approximate growing heat summation for grapevines. Int J Biometeorol 60:1123–1134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Guo L et al (2015) Responses of spring phenology in temperate zone trees to climate warming: a case study of apricot flowering in China. Agric For Meteorol 201:1–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Haylock MR et al (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. J Geophys Res 113:D20119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jacob D et al (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Jones GV, et al. (2005) Changes in European winegrape phenology and relationships with climate. Proc. XIV GESCO Symposium, GeisenheimGoogle Scholar
  24. Luedeling E, Brown PH (2011) A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. Int J Biometeorol 55:411–421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Luedeling E et al (2011) Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLoS One 6Google Scholar
  26. Luedeling E et al (2013) Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees-a statistical approach. Int J Biometeorol 57:679–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Luedeling E et al (2009) Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099. PLoS One 4Google Scholar
  28. Matzneller P et al (2014) Models for the beginning of sour cherry blossom. Int J Biometeorol 58:703–715CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. OIV (2017) World vitiviniculture situation—statistical reporton world VitiViniculture, OIV, Sofia, 20ppGoogle Scholar
  30. Orlandi F et al (2005) Olive flowering as an indicator of local climatic changes. Theor Appl Clim 81:169–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Osborne CP et al (2000) Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean. Pl Cell Envir 23:701–710CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ramos A et al (2018) Chilling accumulation, dormancy release temperature, and the role of leaves in olive reproductive budburst: evaluation using shoot explants. Sci. hort. 231:241–252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Ruiz D et al (2007) Chilling and heat requirements of apricot cultivars for flowering. Envir. expl Bot. 61:254–263CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Santos JA, et al. (2018) New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates. Theor Appl ClimGoogle Scholar
  35. Schwartz MD, Hanes JM (2010) Continental-scale phenology: warming and chilling. Int J Climatol 30:1595–1598CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Spinoni J et al (2015) European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951-2011. Int J Climatol 35:25–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Torres M et al (2017) Olive cultivation in the southern hemisphere: flowering, water requirements and oil quality responses to new crop environments. Front Plant Sci 8:1830CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITABUniversidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD)Vila RealPortugal
  2. 2.Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)KarlsruheGermany

Personalised recommendations