Climatic Change

, Volume 150, Issue 3–4, pp 319–331 | Cite as

Range expansion and redefinition of a crop-raiding rodent associated with global warming and temperature increase

  • Emiliano MoriEmail author
  • Andrea Sforzi
  • Giuseppe Bogliani
  • Pietro Milanesi


Since the 1970s, the crested porcupine Hystrix cristata has shown a marked range expansion in Italy. A web page has been created to collect occurrences of this species to monitor its distribution redefinition. Thus, aims of this work were (i) to identify the main predictors promoting the distribution of this large rodent in Italy and (ii) to predict its potential expansion under future climate change scenarios. A total of 1674 locations were used for this analysis, i.e., all those collected through the web page, with the exception of recently introduced populations (Sardinia, Western Liguria and Province of Varese). The current distribution of the crested porcupine covers a total of 135,177 km2, as estimated through ensemble predictions. Future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070 show that a further range expansion by this species would occur up to 225,576 km2, mainly towards areas where the species was historically absent. The increase of isothermality (i.e., the ratio between the mean diurnal and the annual temperature range) and the mean temperature of the driest months would help crested porcupines to reach high altitudes, e.g., in the Alps. In mountain habitats, the ongoing global warming is shifting the distribution of European forests to high elevations, thus potentially providing porcupines with suitable habitats. A reduction in snow cover and the snow period at ground level would remove an important barrier to the range expansion of the crested porcupine in Italy, and thus facilitate digging and food search by this large rodent. Despite being protected at national and international levels, the crested porcupine is reported to be an introduced species to Italy and, therefore, monitoring its range expansion is required. Furthermore, there are complaints about crop damage in agriculture ecosystems, and the species is still widely poached, thus additional management practices are required. Thus, given the conservation interest of this large rodent, an integrated and constantly updated monitoring system that sustains an addressed set of decision-making tools is recommended.


Climate change Hystrix cristata Italian peninsula Management practices Range redefinition 



The authors would like to thank Dr. Vasco Sfondrini who took the time to revise the first version of our manuscript, Dylan Bell and Kelsey Horvath for improving the English grammar and syntax. Three anonymous reviewers and Dr. Erik Beever improved the first version of this manuscript with useful comments.

Supplementary material

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Table S1 (DOCX 13 kb)
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ESM 1 (DOCX 36 kb)
10584_2018_2261_MOESM3_ESM.docx (503 kb)
Fig. S1 (DOCX 503 kb)


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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Research Unit of Behavioural Ecology, Ethology and Wildlife Management - Department of Life SciencesUniversity of SienaSienaItaly
  2. 2.Museo di Storia Naturale della MaremmaGrossetoItaly
  3. 3.Department of Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of PaviaPaviaItaly
  4. 4.Swiss Ornithological InstituteSempachSwitzerland

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