Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada
- 648 Downloads
Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier onset and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under a Graduate Research Fellowship for L. Jones (Grant DGE-1313190), the US Fish and Wildlife Services, Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative, and the USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center. L. Jones is currently affiliated with the Alaska Center for Conservation Science, University of Alaska Anchorage. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.
L.A.J., C.C.M., and L.A.M. designed the study. L.A.J. and C.C.M. collected and assembled the data. L.A.J. performed analysis, modeling, and cartography; L.A.J. and C.C.M. wrote the paper. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
- Caya D, Laprise R (1999) A semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian regional climate model: the Canadian RCM. Mon Weather Rev 127:341–362. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0341:ASISLR>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- CCCMA (2014) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis: CanRCM4 model output. http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/data/canrcm/CanRCM4/index_cordex.shtml. Accessed 13 April 2015
- Dunham J, Chandler G, Rieman B, Martin D (2005) Measuring stream temperature with digital data loggers: a user’s guide. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-150WWW. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research StationGoogle Scholar
- Giersch J, Jordan S, Luikart G, Jones L, Hauer R, Muhlfeld C (2015) Climate-induced range contraction of a rare alpine aquatic invertebrate. Freshw Sci 34:53–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/679490
- Hall MHP, Fagre DB (2003) Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850–2100. Bioscience 53:131–140. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0131:MCIGCI]2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical basis. Working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Zia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, U.S.AGoogle Scholar
- Isaak DJ et al (2011) NorWeST: an interagency stream temperature database and model for the northwest United States. US Fish and Wildlife Service and Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative: Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html Google Scholar
- Isaak DJ, Horan DL, Wollrab SP (2013) A simple protocol using underwater epoxy to install annual temperature monitoring sites in rivers and streams. USDA Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, Idaho. Techinal Report RMRS-GTR-314Google Scholar
- Isaak DJ, Young MK, Nagel DE, Horan DL, Groce MC (2015) The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century. Global Change Biology 21:2540–2553. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12879
- JIWG (2016) The resilient lands and waters initiative. A report to the Coucil on Climate Preparedness and Resilience and the Joint Implementation Working Group of the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adapation StrategyGoogle Scholar
- Jones LA, Muhlfeld CC, Hauer FR (2017) Temperature. In: Hauer FR, Lamberti GA (eds) Methods in stream ecology, Ecosystem Structure, vol 1. Elsevier, Academic Press, pp 109–120Google Scholar
- Legendre P, Legendre LFJ (1998) Numerical Ecology. Elsevier Science, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
- Kovach RP, Muhlfeld CC, Al-Chokhachy R, Dunham JB, Letcher BH, Kershner JL (2016) Impacts of climatic variation on trout: a global synthesis and path forward. Rev Fish Biol Fish 26(2):135–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-015-9414-x
- Muhlfeld CC, Kovach RP, Jones LA, Al-Chokhachy R, Boyer MC, Leary RF, Lowe WH, Luikart G, Allendorf FW (2014) Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change. Nat Clim Change 4:620–624. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2252
- NOAA (2015) National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the climate: global analysis for annual 2015. http://wwwncdcnoaagov/sotc/global/201513 Accessed 7 October 2016
- NRC (2007) Natural Resources Canada National Hydro Network: http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/data/nhn/index.html. Geobase - Canadian Council on Geomatics (CCOG). Accessed 12 July 2013
- Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v421/n6918/suppinfo/nature01286_S1.html CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Pederson GT, Whitlock C, Watson E, Luckman BH, Graumlich LJ (2007) Climate change and ecosystem history. In: Fagre D, Prato T (eds) Sustaining Rocky Mountain landscapes: science, policy and management of the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem. RFF Press, Washingont, DC, pp 151–170Google Scholar
- Poff NL, Brinson MM, Day JW (2002) Aquatic ecosystems and global climate change: potential impacts on inland freshwater and coastal wetland ecosystems in the United States. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, ArlingtonGoogle Scholar
- Shelton ML (2009) Hydroclimatology: perspectives and applications. University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Sullivan K, Adams TN (1991) The physics of stream heating: 2) An analysis of temperature patterns in stream environments based on physical principals and field data. Weyerhaeuser, Tacoma. Technical Report 044-5002/89/2Google Scholar
- Thornton PE, Thornton MM, Mayer BW, Wilhelmi N, Wei Y, Cook RB (2012) Daymet: daily surface weather on a 1 km grid for North America, 1980-2012 Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Oak Ridge, TennesseeGoogle Scholar
- USGS (2013) National Hydrography Geodatabase: http://viewer.nationalmap.gov/viewer/nhd.html?p=nhd. U.S. Geological Survey: Sioux Falls, SD Accessed 17 July 2013