Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 143, Issue 3–4, pp 519–533 | Cite as

Cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for power pole networks

  • Paraic C. RyanEmail author
  • Mark G. Stewart
Article

Abstract

Power distribution pole networks are vulnerable to a changing climate. Climate change can increase wind speeds, and changes in rainfall and temperature can accelerate timber decay, affecting residual capacity of timber power poles. The present paper utilises advanced stochastic simulation methods to examine climate change impacts, and possible climate change adaptation strategies, for Australian power distribution networks. The assessment framework developed, which is applicable to a wide variety of infrastructure types and research areas, utilises probabilistic methods to investigate the appropriateness of climate adaptation strategies aimed at ameliorating the impact of climate change on critical infrastructure. Measures investigated include alterations to design or maintenance practices through, for example, installation of larger poles, more frequent inspections, or changes to pole replacement criteria. A cost-benefit decision analysis is developed herein using the latest AR5 climate projections, network vulnerability, adaptation measures, and cost and loss data for both direct and indirect costs. The net present value and benefit-to-cost ratio is calculated for different adaptation strategies over the life cycle of the assets up to the year 2090. An adaptation measure that allows for the installation of larger poles but less stringent pole replacement criteria has the highest net benefit—with a mean potential saving of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the financial support of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Flagship Cluster Fund through the project Climate Adaption Engineering for Extreme Events, in collaboration with the Sustainable Cities and Coasts Theme of the CSIRO Climate Adaption Flagship. Costing data provided by Nathan Spencer from URI Engineering is gratefully acknowledged.

Supplementary material

10584_2017_2000_MOESM1_ESM.docx (178 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 177 kb)

References

  1. AEMO (2014) Value of customer reliability review. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)Google Scholar
  2. AEMO (2015) AEMO average pricing tables 2015. Australian Energy Market OperatorGoogle Scholar
  3. AER (2015) AER Regulatory Information Notices (RIN) 2015. Australian Energy Regulator (AER), https://www.aer.gov.au/taxonomy/term/1495
  4. Bjarnadottir S, Li Y, Stewart MG (2013) Hurricane risk assessment of power distribution poles considering impacts of a changing climate. ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems 19:12–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bjarnadottir S, Li Y, Stewart MG (2014) Risk-based economic assessment of mitigation strategies for power distribution poles subjected to hurricanes. Struct Infrastruct Eng 10:740–752CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bolin CA, Smith ST (2011) Life cycle assessment of pentachlorophenol-treated wooden utility poles with comparisons to steel and concrete utility poles. Renew Sust Energ Rev 15:2475–2486CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Crews KI, Horrigan A (2000) Strength assessment of timber utility poles in Australia. New Zealand Timber Design J 9Google Scholar
  8. Dasgupta P (2008) Discounting climate change. Journal of Risk Uncertainty 37:141–169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. ESSA (2015) Data and statistics—energy in Australia. Energy Supply Association of Australia, http://www.esaa.com.au/policy/data_and_statistics-_energy_in_australia
  10. Francis L, Norton J (2006) Australian timber pole resources for energy networks; a review. Department of Primary Industries & Fisheries, QueenslandGoogle Scholar
  11. Henderson DJ, Ginger JD (2007) Vulnerability model of an Australian high-set house subjected to cyclonic wind loading. Wind Struct 10:269–285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  13. IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Editors F (ed) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  14. Praktiknjo AJ, Hähnel A, Erdmann G (2011) Assessing energy supply security: outage costs in private households. Energy Policy 39:7825–7833CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ryan PC, Stewart MG, Spencer N, Li Y (2014) Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 132:261–273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ryan PC, Stewart MG, Spencer N (2015) Cost-effective design and maintenance of timber power distribution poles in a changing climate. 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP12, VancouverGoogle Scholar
  17. Ryan PC, Stewart MG, Spencer N, Li Y (2016) Probabilistic analysis of climate change impacts on timber power pole networks. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 78:513–523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Salman AM, Li Y, Stewart MG (2015) Evaluating system reliability and targeted hardening strategies of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes. Reliability Engineering & System SafetyGoogle Scholar
  19. Standards Australia/New Zealand (2010) AS/NZS 7000–2010: overhead line design—detailed procedures. SydneyGoogle Scholar
  20. Standards Australia/New Zealand (2011) AS/NZS 1170–2:2011 Structural design actions, part 2: wind actions. SydneyGoogle Scholar
  21. Standards Australia/New Zealand (2013) AS/NZS 5334–2013 Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure—a risk based approach. SydneyGoogle Scholar
  22. Stewart MG (2006) Spatial variability of damage and expected maintenance costs for deteriorating RC structures. Struct Infrastruct Eng 2:79–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Stewart M (2015) Risk and economic viability of housing climate adaptation strategies for wind hazards in southeast Australia. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20:601–622CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Stewart M, Deng X (2015) Climate impact risks and climate adaptation engineering for built infrastructure. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 1Google Scholar
  25. Stoft S (2002) Power system economics: designing markets for electricity. Wiley-IEEE Press, PiscatawayCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Wang C-h, Wang X (2012) Vulnerability of timber in ground contact to fungal decay under climate change. Clim Chang 115:777–794CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Wang C-H, Leicester RH, Nguyen M (2008a) Timber durability technical report. Manual no. 3—decay in ground contact. CRISO and FWPRDCGoogle Scholar
  28. Wang C-H, Leicester RH, Nguyen MN (2008b) Probabilistic procedure for design of untreated timber poles in-ground under attack of decay fungi. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93(3):476–481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Wang C-H, Wang X, Khoo YB (2013) Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change. Nat Hazards 67:549–567CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Webb LB, Hennessy K (2015) Climate change in Australia—projections for selected Australian cities. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
  31. Winkler J, Duenas-Osorio L, Stein R, Subramanian D (2010) Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 95:323–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Discipline of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, School of EngineeringUniversity College CorkCorkIreland
  2. 2.Centre for Infrastructure Performance and ReliabilityThe University of NewcastleCallaghanAustralia

Personalised recommendations