Abstract
Probabilistic event attribution aims to attribute weather events to anthropogenic forcings. Some claim the development of this methodology is motivated by social utility rather than scientific understanding. I trace the evolution of arguments for probabilistic event attribution’s social usefulness from their origins in private climate change litigation through adaptive decision-making, and end with the methodology’s relevance for addressing loss and damage due to extreme events. I show that probabilistic event attribution is unlikely to substantially contribute to litigation or adaptation, and while it is potentially relevant for addressing loss and damage, securing a lasting role in this context requires answering some key questions regarding event attribution’s capacities and deployment.
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Notes
These three applications are the most frequently mentioned; they are not meant to be an exhaustive list.
This might suggest that the EPA is the appropriate target for litigation. Such litigation falls under public liability law and assess whether proper procedure was followed in crafting the regulation, and that the regulation respects the intent of underlying law. PEA is unlikely to be helpful for these tasks.
Projecting future risk might employ the same models as PEA, but this is a separate activity from attribution.
Thompson and Otto’s proposal requires negotiation to set risk thresholds for climate recognition. Furthermore, it faces questions of proportion: should recognition be proportional to the increased risk of an event? I thank the first reviewer for raising these points.
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Lusk, G. The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage. Climatic Change 143, 201–212 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1967-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1967-3