Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
- First Online:
- 379 Downloads
This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.
KeywordsTropical cyclones Climate change High-resolution
- Done JM, PaiMazumder D, Towler E et al (2015) Estimating Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using an Index of Damage Potential. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1513-0
- Efron B, Tibshirani RJ (1998) An Introduction to the bootstrap. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probablity 57. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton FL. 435 pp.Google Scholar
- Emanuel KA, D Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10 A.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75463.htm.]
- Gettelman, A., D. Bresch, C. C. Chen, et al. (2016) Projections of future tropical cyclone damage with a high resolution global climate model. Climatic Change. (in review)Google Scholar
- Knutson TR et al. (2015) Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios. J Clim 28(18). doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1
- Neale, R. J. et al. (2012) Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0). NCAR Tech. Note NCARTN-4861STR, 274 ppGoogle Scholar
- Reed KA, Bacmeister JT, Rosenbloom N et al. (2015) Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model. Geophys Res Lett 42(9):3603–3608Google Scholar
- Villarini G et al. (2014) Sensitivity of tropical cyclone rainfall to idealized global-scale forcings. J Clim 20(12):2307–2314Google Scholar
- Zhao M, Held IM, Lin S-J (2012) Some counter-intuitive dependencies of tropical cyclone frequency on parameters in a GCM. J Atmos Sci 69(7). doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0238.