A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees
- 413 Downloads
Anthropogenic climate change will influence winter chill accumulation, with future declines likely in temperate locations. However, these declines only translate as impacts when cultivar winter chilling requirements are not satisfied. This study presents a methodology to evaluate future impacts of declining winter chill through a cultivarspecific approach which is useful for growers, industry and policy-makers to develop adaptation strategies. A risk based system was applied to represent the likelihood of meeting cultivar chilling requirements using low, medium, medium-high and high risk ratings based on percentiles. This was combined with climate projection uncertainty graphically at 16 Australian growing districts historically (1981–2010) and for 2030, 2050 and 2090. The results demonstrated that impacts and likely adaptation options differed between cultivars, some recording limited risk at all sites out to 2090 ('Nonpareil' almond) whilst others recorded greater risk both historically and into the future ('Chandler' walnut). Notably, risk differed across sites and with the future time period. These results highlight which cultivars are susceptible to low winter chill conditions, where this risk does and does not manifest and the different time horizons at which the risk will materialise across Australia's main growing districts. Using this approach, changes in winter chill conditions are presented in a useable form which allows for appropriate climate adaptation strategies to be developed, securing the industries into the future.
KeywordsCrop Type Chilling Requirement Dormancy Breaking Climate Impact Assessment Risk Appetite
The authors thank Mark O’Connell , Jennifer Whitney and Walnuts Australia for advice on cultivar selection and Australian growing regions. Funding for this research was provided by the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources.
- Clarke JM, Whetton PH, and Hennessy KJ (2011) Providing application-specific climate projections datasets: CSIRO’s climate futures framework. In: F. Chan, D. Marinova and R.S. Anderssen (Editors), MODSIM2011, 19th international congress on Modelling and simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Perth, Western Australia, pp. 2683–2690. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7.Google Scholar
- CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (2015) Climate change in Australia information for Australia’s natural resource management regions: technical report. CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
- Dennis FG (2003) Problems in standardizing methods for evaluating the chilling requirements for the breaking of dormancy in buds of woody plants. Hortscience 38(3):347–350Google Scholar
- Finetto GA (2014) An investigation of chilling requirement of some scab resistant apple cultivars in Po Valley. Acta Hortic:115–122Google Scholar
- Ghariani K, Stebbins RL (1994) Chilling requirements of apple and pear cultivars. Fruit Varieties J 48(4):215–222Google Scholar
- Jones D, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58:233–248Google Scholar
- Joyce C (2015) PGA chill newsletter. Pistachio Growers’ Association, July, p. 6Google Scholar
- Linvill DE (1990) Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations. Hortscience 25(1):14–16Google Scholar
- Measham PF, Quentin AG, MacNair N (2014) Climate, winter chill, and decision-making in sweet cherry production. Hortscience 49(3):254–259Google Scholar
- Moise A et al. (2015) Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models over the Australian region to inform confidence in projections. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J, (accepted).Google Scholar
- Palasciano M, Gaeta L (2012) Chilling requirements of ten sweet cherry cultivars grown in Apulia region (Southeast Italy). Palmero, ItalyGoogle Scholar
- Pistachio Growers’ Association (2015). Total Production of Pistachio. <http://www.pgai.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Total_Production_of_Pistachio.pdf >
- Pope K (2015) Fruit & nut crop chill portions requirements. The University of California, <http://fruitsandnuts.ucdavis.edu/Weather_Services/chilling_accumulation_models/CropChillReq/ >.
- Saure MC (1985) Dormancy release in deciduous fruit trees. Hortic Rev 7:239–300Google Scholar
- Voller CFP (1986) Predicting rest-breaking: principles and problems. Deciduous Fruit Grower 36(8):302–308Google Scholar
- Zhang J, Taylor C (2011) The dynamic model provides the best description of the chill process on ‘Sirora’ pistachio trees in Australia. Hortscience 46(3):420–425Google Scholar