Climatic Change

, Volume 134, Issue 4, pp 697–711

Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world

  • Carlos Yañez-Arenas
  • A. Townsend Peterson
  • Karla Rodríguez-Medina
  • Narayani Barve

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1544-6

Cite this article as:
Yañez-Arenas, C., Townsend Peterson, A., Rodríguez-Medina, K. et al. Climatic Change (2016) 134: 697. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1544-6


Snakebite envenoming is an important public health concern worldwide. In the Americas, ~300,000 bites occur annually, leaving 84,110–140,981 envenomings and 652–3466 deaths. Here, we modeled current and future snakebite risk using ecological niche models (ENMs) of 90 venomous snake taxa. Current snakebite risk predictions were corroborated by incidence data from eight regions/periods with different characteristics. Detailed projections of potential future range shifts on distributions of the medically most relevant species indicated that North American species’ ranges are likely to increase in the future, but mixed results were obtained for Latin American snakes. A likely expansion of overall risk area and an increase of rural population at risk were observed from a consensus model among future scenarios. Our study highlights the capacity of ENMs to provide detailed information on current and future potential distributions of venomous snakes, as well as useful perspectives on snakebite risk, at least broad scales.

Supplementary material

10584_2015_1544_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (228 kb)
ESM 1(PDF 228 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (952 kb)
ESM 2(PDF 951 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM3_ESM.pdf (548 kb)
ESM 3(PDF 548 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM4_ESM.pdf (691 kb)
ESM 4(PDF 690 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM5_ESM.pdf (13.5 mb)
ESM 5(PDF 13803 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM6_ESM.pdf (518 kb)
ESM 6(PDF 518 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM7_ESM.pdf (559 kb)
ESM 7(PDF 558 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM8_ESM.pdf (213 kb)
ESM 8(PDF 212 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM9_ESM.pdf (444 kb)
ESM 9(PDF 443 kb)
10584_2015_1544_MOESM10_ESM.pdf (385 kb)
ESM 10(PDF 384 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Biodiversity InstituteUniversity of KansasLawrenceUSA

Personalised recommendations