Effect of climate change on corrosion rates of structures in Australia
- 806 Downloads
As structures built now will be expected to last well past 2064 (50 years) it is vital that the effect of climate change be considered in their design and material selection. In particular changes in the rate of corrosion of metal components must be considered. To this end this study estimates the maximum likely change in the corrosion rate for the year 2070 so it can be included in current design. Changes in corrosion are estimated for 11 coastal and inland locations in Australia. For each station the climatic data (3-hourly) in 2070 is estimated by modifying current data with probable changes based on two climate change models (CSIRO: CSIRO-Mk 3.5 and MRI: MRI-CGCM 3.2.2). The former is for high global warming rate and the later the A1FI scenario. This climatic data is then run the Corrosion “predictor” (a multi-scale process model) to predict corrosion at each location. It is found that significant changes occur with corrosion in coastal locations increasing substantially, in contrast the corrosion at inland locations will decrease moderately. The increase in coastal locations is associated with a greater build up of salt due to less frequent rain evens while the reduction in inland locations is associated with a reduction in RH and thus surface wetness.
KeywordsCorrosion Rate Galvanize Steel Future Climate Scenario Atmospheric Corrosion Climate Change Model
We would like to acknowledge the help of Dr. Leanne Webb from CSIRO Marine and atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, in selecting appropriate climate models for this study.
- Clarke JM, Whetton PH, Hennessy KJ (2011). Providing application-specific climate projections datasets: CSIRO’s Climate Futures Framework. 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011. http://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011
- Cole IS, Paterson DA, Ganther WD, Neufeld A, Hinton B, McAdam G, McGeachie M, Jeffery R, Chotimongkol L, Bhamornsut C, Hue HV, Purwadaria S (2003b) Holistic model for atmospheric corrosion- Part 3- Effect of natural and manmade landforms on deposition of marine salts in Australia and south-east Asia. Corros Eng Sci Technol 38(4):267–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- CSIRO (2007) Climate change in Australia. CSIRO, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2000) In: Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) ‘Emissions scenarios’, Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol 570. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2007) In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol 996. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC (2007) In: Solomon S et al (eds) ‘Climate change 2007: the physical science basis’, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747–846Google Scholar
- Nijland TG, Adan OCG, van Hees RPJ, van Etten BD (2009) Evaluation of the effects of expected climate change on the durability of building materials with suggestions for adaption. Heron 54(1):37–48Google Scholar
- Rafter T, Abbs D (2009) An analysis of future changes in extreme rainfall over Australian regions based on GCM simulations and Extreme Value Analysis. CAWCR Res Lett 3:44–55Google Scholar
- Stewart MG, Peng J (2010) Life-cycle cost assessment of climate change adaption measures to minimise carbonation-induced corrosion risks. Int J Eng Uncertain: Hazards Assess Mitig 2(1–2):35–45Google Scholar
- Suppiah R, Hennessy K, Whetton PH, McInnes K, Macadam I, Bathols J, Ricketts J, Page CM (2007) Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Aust Meteorol Mag 56(3):131–152Google Scholar