Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios
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This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.
KeywordsDestination Country International Tourism Origin Country Gravity Equation Tourism Flow
We would like to thank Richard S.J. Tol (Sussex University, UK) for helpful comments, and suggestions about data sources provided by Fabio Eboli (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy). Financial support from the CICYT Program (Spanish Government) through grants ECO2010-22143 and ECO2011-23189, and the VI Framework Program through the CIRCE project (003933-2) is gratefully acknowledged. Finally, we want to thank UN-WTO for kindly providing us with tourism data.
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