Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change
- 6.2k Downloads
We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them.
KeywordsBlack Carbon Solar Irradiance Granger Causality Granger Causality Test Ocean Heat Content
We thank Paul Burke, Robert Costanza, Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, Shuang Liu, Vid Stimac, and two anonymous referees for their useful comments.
- Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Melvin TM, Caesar J (2012) Thermal growing season and timing of biospheric carbon uptake across the Northern Hemisphere. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 26(4), GB4015Google Scholar
- Bilancia M, Vitale D (2012) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global warming: evidence from Granger causality analysis. In: Di Ciaccio A, Coli M, Angulo Ibanez JM (eds.) Advanced statistical methods for the analysis of large data-sets, Springer, pp 229–239Google Scholar
- Boucher O, Pham M (2002) History of sulfate aerosol radiative forcings. Geophys Res Lett 29(9):22-1–22-4Google Scholar
- Forster P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Betts R, Fahey DW, Haywood J, Lean J, Lowe DC, Myhre G, Nganga J, Prinn R, Raga G, Schulz M, Van Dorland R (2007) Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds.) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 129–234Google Scholar
- Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato N, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48, RG4004Google Scholar
- Keeling CD, Piper SC, Bacastow RB, Wahlen M, Whorf TP, Heimann M, Meijer HA (2005) Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: Observation and carbon cycle implications. In: Ehleringer JR, Cerling T, Dearing MD (eds.) A history of atmospheric CO2 and its effects on plants, animals, and ecosystems. Ecological Studies 177, Springer, pp 83–113Google Scholar
- Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Baranova OK, Garcia HE, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Reagan JR, Seidov D, Yarosh ES, Zweng MM (2012) World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys Res Lett 39(10), L10603Google Scholar
- Morice CP, Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Jones PD (2012) Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. J Geophys Res 117, D08101Google Scholar
- Piao S, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Peylin P, Reichstein M, Luyssaert S, Margolis H, Fang J, Barr A, Chen A, Grelle A, Hollinger DY, Laurila T, Lindroth A, Richardson AD, Vesala T (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature 451(7174):49–53CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Sargent TJ (1979) Causality, exogeneity, and natural rate models: reply to C. R. Nelson and B. T. McCallum. J Political Econ 87(2):403–409Google Scholar
- Wilde J (2012) Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality—a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations. Institute of Empirical Economic Research, University of Osnabrück, Working Paper 93Google Scholar