Transport electrification: A key element for energy system transformation and climate stabilization
- 973 Downloads
This paper analyzes the role of transport electrification in the broader context of energy system transformation and climate stabilization. As part of the EMF27 model inter-comparison exercise, we employ the MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling framework to conduct a systematic variation of availability, cost, and performance of particular energy supply technologies, thereby deriving implications for feasibility of climate stabilization goals and the associated costs of mitigation. In addition, we explore a wide range of assumptions regarding the potential degree of electrification of the transportation sector. These analyses allow us to (i) test the extent to which the feasible attainment of stringent climate policy targets depends on transport electrification, and (ii) assess the far-reaching impacts that transport electrification could have throughout the rest of the energy system. A detailed analysis of the transition to electricity within the transport sector is not conducted. Our results indicate that while a low-carbon transport system built upon conventional liquid-based fuel delivery infrastructures is destined to become increasingly reliant on biofuels and synthetic liquids, electrification opens up a door through which nuclear energy and non-biomass renewables can flow. The latter has important implications for mitigation costs.
KeywordsTransport Electrification Transport Sector Final Energy Mitigation Cost Climate Stabilization
We recognize the technical contributions of Patrick Sullivan to this analysis. The Sankey-type flow diagrams were developed using the Fineo software made available by the DensityDesign Research Lab of the Politecnico di Milano. The comments of the editor and anonymous reviewers helped to substantially improve this paper.
- Calvin K, Wise M, Klein D, McCollum D, Tavoni M, van der Zwaan B, van Vuuren D (2013) A multi-model analysis of the regional and sectoral roles of bioenergy in near-term and long-term carbon mitigation. Climate Change Economics.Google Scholar
- Cherp A, Adenikinju A, Goldthau A, Hughes L, Jansen J, Jewell J, Olshanskaya M, Soares de Oliveira R, Sovacool B, Vakulenko S (2012) Chapter 5—energy and security. Global energy assessment—toward a sustainable future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 325–384.Google Scholar
- Edenhofer O, Knopf B, Barker T, Baumstark L, Bellevrat E, Chateau B, Criqui P, Isaac M, Kitous A, Kypreos S, Leimbach M, Lessmann K, Magne B, Scrieciu Å, Turton H, Van Vuuren DP (2010) The economics of low stabilization: Model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs. Energy Journal 31:11–48Google Scholar
- Edmonds J, Wilson T, Wise M, Weyant J (2006) Electrification of the economy and CO2 emissions mitigation. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 7:175–203Google Scholar
- Kriegler E, Weyant JP, Blanford GJ, Krey V, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Fawcett A, Luderer G, Riahi K, Richels R, Rose SK, Tavoni M, van Vuuren DP (2013) The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7
- McCollum DL, Krey V, Riahi K (2012) Beyond Rio: Sustainable energy scenarios for the 21st century. Natural Resources Forum.Google Scholar
- OECD/ITF (2012) Transport outlook 2012: Seamless transport for greener growth. International Transport Forum (ITF) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), ParisGoogle Scholar
- Ogden J, Anderson L (eds.) (2011) Sustainable transportation energy pathways: A research summary for decision makers, The Regents of the University of California, Davis campus.Google Scholar
- Riahi K, Dentener F, Gielen D, Grubler A, Jewell J, Klimont Z, Krey V, McCollum D, Pachauri S, Rao S, van Ruijven B, van Vuuren DP, Wilson C (2012) Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. Global Energy Assessment—Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1203–1306.Google Scholar
- Rose S, Kriegler E, Popp A (2013) Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3
- Skinner I, van Essen H, Smokers R, Hill N (2010) Towards the decarbonisation of EU’s transport sector by 2050. Final report produced under the contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053 between European Commission Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc; see www.eutransportghg2050.eu.
- Teske S, Pregger T, Simon S, Naegler T, O’Sullivan M, Schmid S, Pagenkopf J, Frieske B, Graus W, Kermeli K, Zittel W, Rutovitz J, Harris S, Ackermann T, Ruwahata R, Martensen N (2012) Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable world energy outlook, 4th ed. Greenpeace international, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)Google Scholar
- van Vliet O, Krey V, McCollum D, Pachauri S, Nagai Y, Rao S, Riahi K (2012) Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution. Energy Economics.Google Scholar
- WBCSD (2004) Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability. World business council for sustainable development.Google Scholar
- Yang C, Ogden J, Sperling D, Hwang R (2011) California’s energy future: Transportation energy Use in California. California council on science and technology.Google Scholar