Climatic Change

, Volume 123, Issue 3–4, pp 369–382 | Cite as

Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios

  • Volker Krey
  • Gunnar Luderer
  • Leon Clarke
  • Elmar Kriegler


Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation.


Climate Policy Decarbonization Mitigation Cost Mitigation Scenario Negative Emission 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



Volker Krey’s, Gunnar Luderer’s and Elmar Kriegler’s contribution was supported by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 282846 (LIMITS). Leon Clarke’s contribution was supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_947_MOESM1_ESM.docx (2.5 mb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 2589 KB)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Volker Krey
    • 1
  • Gunnar Luderer
    • 2
  • Leon Clarke
    • 3
  • Elmar Kriegler
    • 2
  1. 1.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain III: Sustainable SolutionsPotsdamGermany
  3. 3.Joint Global Change Research Institute5825 University Research Court Suite 3500College ParkUSA

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