Climatic Change

, Volume 119, Issue 3–4, pp 841–854 | Cite as

Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire

  • P. Läderach
  • A. Martinez-Valle
  • G. Schroth
  • N. Castro
Article

Abstract

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are the world’s leading cocoa (Thebroma cacao) producing countries; together they produce 53 % of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa contributes 7.5 % of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Côte d’Ivoire and 3.4 % of that of Ghana and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the forest zones of these countries. If progressive climate change affected the climatic suitability for cocoa in West Africa, this would have implications for global cocoa output as well as the national economies and farmer livelihoods, with potential repercussions for forests and natural habitat as cocoa growing regions expand, shrink or shift. The objective of this paper is to present future climate scenarios for the main cocoa growing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and to predict their impact on the relative suitability of these regions for growing cocoa. These analyses are intended to support the respective countries and supply chain actors in developing strategies for reducing the vulnerability of the cocoa sector to climate change. Based on the current distribution of cocoa growing areas and climate change predictions from 19 Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for cocoa for 2050 using an adapted MAXENT model. According to the model, some current cocoa producing areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d’Ivoire) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in agronomic management, and in yet others the climatic suitability for growing cocoa will increase (Kwahu Plateu in Ghana and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire). We recommend the development of site-specific strategies to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa farmers and the sector to future climate change.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_774_MOESM1_ESM.tif (6 mb)
Figure S1(TIFF 6187 kb)
10584_2013_774_Fig2_ESM.jpg (227 kb)

High resolution image (JPEG 226 kb)

10584_2013_774_MOESM2_ESM.tif (1.6 mb)
Figure S2(TIFF 1639 kb)
10584_2013_774_Fig3_ESM.jpg (17 kb)

High resolution image (JPEG 16 kb)

10584_2013_774_Fig4_ESM.jpg (703 kb)
Figure S3

(JPEG 703 kb)

10584_2013_774_MOESM5_ESM.png (88 kb)
Figure S4(PNG 88 kb)
10584_2013_774_MOESM3_ESM.docx (23 kb)
Table S1(DOCX 22 kb)
10584_2013_774_MOESM4_ESM.docx (108 kb)
ESM 1(DOCX 108 kb)

References

  1. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration — guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e00.htm#Contents Google Scholar
  2. Anim-Kwapong GJ and Frimpong EB (2005) Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change- impact of climate change on cocoa production. Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana. http://www.nlcap.net/fileadmin/NCAP/Countries/Ghana/COCOA_DRAFT_FINAL_REPORT.pdf
  3. Asare R (2006) A review on cocoa agroforestry as a means for biodiversity conservation. Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning Denmark. Accessed June, 2011. http://www.icraf.com/treesandmarkets/inaforesta/documents/agrof_cons_biodiv/Cocoa_review_biodiversity.pdf
  4. Asare DK, Banini GK, Ayeh EO, Godwin A (2011) Estimation of potential evapotranspiration for a coastal savannah environment by comparison of different methods. J Sustain Agr 3(2):65–70Google Scholar
  5. Brown O, and Crawford A (2009) Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa. Country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso. http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2008/security_implications_west_africa.pdf
  6. Carr MK, Lockwood G (2011) The water relations and irrigation requirements of cocoa (Theobroma Cacao L.). Exp Agr 47(4):653–676CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Coulombe, H and Wodon Q (2007) Poverty, livelihoods, and access to basic services in Ghana. Background paper for Ghana’s country economic memorandum. World Bank. Washington D. CGoogle Scholar
  8. Dabin B, Leneuf N, et Riou G (1960) Carte Pedologique de la Côte d’Ivoire au 1–2.000.000. Institut D’enseignement et de Recherches Tropicales. Notice Explicative. (Soil Map of The Côte d’Ivoire Republic. Scale 1:2,000,000. Tropical Teaching and Research Institute. Explanatory Note)Google Scholar
  9. Elith J, Graham CH (2009) Do they? How do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecocraphy 32(1):66–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. FAO (2008) FAOSTAT Online database. FAO-UN. Accessed June, 2011. http://faostat.fao.org
  11. Franzen M, Borgerhoff Mulder M (2007) Ecological, economic and social perspectives on cocoa production worldwide. Springer. Biodivers Conserv 16:3835–3849CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99Google Scholar
  13. Hargreaves GH, Allen RG (2003) History and evaluation of hargreaves evapotranspiration equation. J Irrigat Drain Eng 129(1):53–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) (2008) Annual Report 2008/2009. London: ICCO. Accessed June, 2011. www.icco.org/pdf/An_report/AnnualReport20082009.pdf
  16. IPCC: Climate Change (2007) The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 996Google Scholar
  17. Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kra E, Ofosu-Anim J (2010) Modeling maize planting date to minimize irrigation water requirements [online]. Aust J Agric Eng Vol. 1(Issue 2)Google Scholar
  19. Kumar L, Skidmore AK, Knowles E (1997) Modelling topographic variation in solar radiation in a GIS environment. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 11(5):475–497Google Scholar
  20. Läderach P, Hagger J, Lau C, Eitzinger A, Ovalle O, Baca M, Jarvis A, Lundy M (2010a) Mesoamerican coffee: building a climate change adaptation strategy. CIAT, policy brief, 4 pGoogle Scholar
  21. Läderach P, Lundy M, Jarvis A, Ramírez J, Pérez PE, Schepp K, Eitzinger A (2010b) Predicted impact of climate change on coffee-supply chains. In: Leal Filho W (ed) The economic, social and political elements of climate change. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Chapter 42Google Scholar
  22. Läderach P, Eitzinger A, Martinez A, Castro N (2011) Predicting the impact of climate change on the cocoa-growing regions in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire. Final Report. p 35 http://www.ciat.cgiar.org/Newsroom/Documents/ghana_ivory_coast_climate_change_and_cocoa.pdf
  23. Leonard E, Oswald M (1996) Une agriculture forestière sans forêt. Changements agro-écologiques et innovations paysannes en Côte d’Ivoire. Natures, Sciences, Sociétés 3(4):202–216Google Scholar
  24. Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcom WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Martin Ph, Rosenberg NJ, McKenney MS (1989) Sensitivity of evapotranspiration in a wheat field, a forest, and a grassland to changes in climate and direct effects of carbon dioxide. Clim Chang 14:117–151Google Scholar
  26. Ntiamoah A and Afrane G (2008) Environmental impacts of cocoa production and processing in Ghana: life cycle assessment approach. Elsevier. J Clean Prod 16(2008) 1735e1740Google Scholar
  27. Oguntunde PG, Abiodun BJ, Lischeid G (2011) Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. J Hydrol 411:207–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ramirez J and Jarvis A (2010) Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs. Disaggregation of Global Circulation Model Outputs. http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
  29. Reuter HI, Nelson A, Jarvis A (2007) An evaluation of void filling interpolation methods for SRTM data. Int J Geogr Inform Sci 21:983–1008. doi:10.1080/13658810601169899 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rosenberg NJ, McKenney MS, Martin Ph (1989) Evapotranspiration in a greenhouse warmed world: a review and a simulation. Agric For Meteorol 47:303–320Google Scholar
  31. Ruf F (2011) The myth of complex cocoa agroforests: the case of Ghana. Hum Ecol 39(3):373–388. doi:10.1007/s10745-011-9392-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ruf F, Schroth G (2004) Chocolate forests and monocultures - an historical review of cocoa growing and its conflicting role in tropical deforestation and forest conservation. In: Schroth G, Fonseca GAB, Harvey CA, Gascon C, Vasconcelos HL, Izac AMN (eds) Agroforestry and biodiversity conservation in tropical landscapes. Island Press, Washington, D.C., pp 107–134Google Scholar
  33. Ruf F, Schroth G (eds) (2013) Cultures Pérennes Tropicales - Enjeux Économiques et Écologiques de la Diversification. Editions Quae, Montpellier, 304 ppGoogle Scholar
  34. Schroth G, Laderach P, Dempewolf J, Philpott S, Haggar J, Eakin H, Castillejos T, Moreno JG, Soto Pinto L, Hernandez R, Eitzinger A, Ramirez-Villegas J (2009) Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 14:605–625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Schroth G, Faria D, Araujo M, Bede L, Van Bael SA, Cassano CR, Oliveira LC, Delabie JHC (2011) Conservation in tropical landscape mosaics: the case of the cacao landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil. Biodivers Conserv 20:1635–1654CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Sheffield J, Wood E, Roderick M (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491:435–438CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Stöckle C, Martin S, and Cambell G (1992) A model to assess environmental impact of cropping systems. Amer Soc Agr Eng 92(2041)Google Scholar
  38. Tscharntke T, Clough Y, Bhagwat SA, Buchori D, Faust H, Hertel D, Hölscher D, Juhrbandt J, Kessler M, Perfecto I, Scherber C, Schroth G, Veldkamp E, Wanger TC (2011) Multifunctional shade-tree management in tropical agroforestry landscapes – a review. J Appl Ecol 48:619–629CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Tukey JW (1977) Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, MAGoogle Scholar
  40. Van Oijen M, Dauzat J, Harmand JM, Lawson G, Vaast P (2010) Coffee agroforestry systems in Central America: II. Development of a simple process-based model and preliminary results. Agroforest Syst 80(3):361–378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wood G, Lass R (2001) Cacao, 4th edn. Blackwell Science Ltd., OxfordGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. Läderach
    • 1
  • A. Martinez-Valle
    • 1
  • G. Schroth
    • 2
  • N. Castro
    • 1
  1. 1.International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)ManaguaNicaragua
  2. 2.Conservation International, Africa and Madagascar Field DivisionSantarémBrazil

Personalised recommendations