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Climatic Change

, Volume 119, Issue 3–4, pp 603–615 | Cite as

Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale

  • Neha MittalEmail author
  • Ashok Mishra
  • Rajendra Singh
Article

Abstract

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970–1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021–2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends.

Keywords

Regional Climate Model Precipitation Extreme Human Development Index Climatic Extreme Climate Research Unit 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgment

This work has been supported by the HighNoon project, funded by the European Commission Framework Programme 7 under Grant Nr. 227087.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_760_MOESM1_ESM.doc (811 kb)
ESM 1 (DOC 811 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Agricultural and Food Engineering DepartmentIndian Institute of Technology KharagpurKharagpurIndia

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