Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries
IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.
The authors wish to thank the Ocean Productivity team for providing the SeaWiFS-derived primary production, Peter Williams (SPC) and Michael Hinton (IATTC) for preparing and supplying catch and size composition data, and Laurent Bopp for assisting in the use of IPSL-CM4 and PISCES outputs.
This work was funded partly by the 10th European Development Fund project SCICOFISH (Scientific Support to coastal and Oceanic Fisheries Management in the western and Central Pacific Ocean), the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) project (Enhanced estimates of climate change impacts on WCPO tuna). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their organizations or funding Agencies.
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