Ocean acidification and its impacts: an expert survey
The oceans moderate the rate and severity of climate change by absorbing massive amounts of anthropogenic CO2 but this results in large-scale changes in seawater chemistry, which are collectively referred to as anthropogenic ocean acidification. Despite its potentially widespread consequences, the problem of ocean acidification has been largely absent from most policy discussions of CO2 emissions, both because the science is relatively new and because the research community has yet to deliver a clear message to decision makers regarding its impacts. Here we report the results of the first expert survey in the field of ocean acidification. Fifty-three experts, who had previously participated in an IPCC workshop, were asked to assess 22 declarative statements about ocean acidification and its consequences. We find a relatively strong consensus on most issues related to past, present and future chemical aspects of ocean acidification: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and anthropogenic ocean acidification that has occurred due to historical fossil fuel emissions will be felt for centuries. Experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks but levels of agreement were lower, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreement were higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation than for those about impacts on foodwebs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to socio-economic impacts, such as impacts on food security, and to more normative policy issues, were relatively low.
We thank the respondents for their participation in the study (for full list see the supplementary information). Discussions with Michael Mastrandrea were instrumental in designing the survey. The assistance of Mandy B. Holbrook, Avani Kaushik and Tatiana Donnay is gratefully acknowledged. This work is a contribution to the “European Project on Ocean Acidification” and to the MedSeA project. Work at Carnegie Mellon was supported by the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation and Carnegie Mellon University (SES-0949710)).
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