Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism
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This paper investigates the impact of climate change on destination choice decisions in a context of domestic coastal tourism in Spain. Destinations are characterized in terms of travel cost and coastal ‘attractors’, such as temperature and beach-related attributes. By means of a discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of interprovincial domestic trips, showing trade-offs between temperature and attractiveness in the probability of a particular destination being chosen. The model is used to investigate the impact of two climate change scenarios on the allocation of domestic tourism within Spain. The findings show that while Spain’s northern colder provinces would benefit from rising temperatures, provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips.
KeywordsClimate Change Scenario Travel Cost Choice Probability Discrete Choice Model International Tourism
Financial support from the “Challenging climate change effects on tourism demand. Empirical evidence and adaptation measures” (ECO2010-22143) project funded by the CICYT Program (Spanish Government) is gratefully acknowledged. Additionally, data provided by Álvaro Moreno (Universiteit Maastricht) on future climate scenarios is also acknowledged.
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