Climatic Change

, Volume 113, Issue 3–4, pp 1113–1121 | Cite as

The art of the science: climate forecasts for wildfire management in the southeastern United States

  • Carla RoncoliEmail author
  • Norman Breuer
  • David Zierden
  • Clyde Fraisse
  • Kenneth Broad
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom


This article illustrates how a wildfire risk forecast evolved iteratively based on stakeholder consultations. An assessment based on phone interviews indicates that such forecasts can assist fire management decisions, such as deployment of human, financial, and material resources and management of forest, timber, and habitats, and public safety. But careful attention to communication, collaboration, and capacity building is key to realizing this potential.


Climate Forecast Fire Management Seasonal Climate Forecast Wildfire Risk ENSO Phase 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This study was supported by USDA and NOAA through the Southeast Climate Consortium. We appreciate comments by Alan Dozier, Carrie Furman, Gregg Garfin, and Keith Ingram, and graphic work by Shenandoah Evans and Oxana Uryasev.

Supplementary material

10584_2012_526_MOESM1_ESM.jpg (4.4 mb)
SOM 1 Example of wildfire risk forecast available on the AgroClimate website in June 2008 (JPEG 4542 kb)
10584_2012_526_MOESM2_ESM.jpg (3.3 mb)
SOM 2 Example of wildfire risk forecast available on the AgroClimate website in July 2011, indicating a 58% probability of severely dry conditions for Laurel County, Georgia (JPEG 3370 kb)
10584_2012_526_MOESM3_ESM.doc (42 kb)
SOM 3 Potential applications of wildfire risk forecasts identified by stakeholders (DOC 41 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carla Roncoli
    • 1
    Email author
  • Norman Breuer
    • 2
  • David Zierden
    • 3
  • Clyde Fraisse
    • 4
  • Kenneth Broad
    • 2
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom
    • 5
  1. 1.Department of AnthropologyEmory UniversityAtlantaUSA
  2. 2.Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiUSA
  3. 3.Center for Ocean‐Atmospheric Prediction StudiesFlorida State UniversityTallahasseeUSA
  4. 4.Department of Agricultural and Biological EngineeringUniversity of FloridaGainsvilleUSA
  5. 5.AgWeatherNetWashington State UniversityProsserUSA

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