Climatic Change

, Volume 116, Issue 3–4, pp 705–722 | Cite as

Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil

  • Maria A. F. Silva DiasEmail author
  • Juliana Dias
  • Leila M. V. Carvalho
  • Edmilson D. Freitas
  • Pedro L. Silva Dias


Significant positive trends are found in the evolution of daily rainfall extremes in the city of São Paulo (Brazil) from 1933 to 2010. Climatic indices including ENSO, PDO, NAO and the sea surface temperature at the coast near São Paulo explain 85 % of the increasing frequency of extremes during the dry season. During the wet season the climatic indices and the local sea surface temperature explain a smaller fraction of the total variance when compared to the dry season indicating that other factors such as the growth of the urban heat island and the role of air pollution in cloud microphysics need to be taken into account to explain the observed trends over the almost eight decades.


Daily Rainfall Urban Heat Island Generalize Extreme Value Climatic Index South Pacific Convergence Zone 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This work has been supported by FAPESP and CNPq. JD acknowledges the support of a NRC Research Associate fellowship. LMVC acknowledges the support of NOAA NA10OAR4310170 and NSF 1126804. PLDSD acknowledges the support of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research.

Supplementary material

10584_2012_504_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (530 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 529 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Maria A. F. Silva Dias
    • 1
    Email author
  • Juliana Dias
    • 2
  • Leila M. V. Carvalho
    • 3
  • Edmilson D. Freitas
    • 1
  • Pedro L. Silva Dias
    • 4
    • 5
  1. 1.Departamento de Ciências AtmosféricasUniversidade de São PauloSão PauloBrazil
  2. 2.Earth System Research LaboratoryNOAABoulderUSA
  3. 3.University of California at Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA
  4. 4.Departamento de Ciências AtmosféricasUniversidade de São PauloSão PauloBrazil
  5. 5.Laboratório Nacional de Computação CientíficaPetrópolisBrazil

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