Climatic Change

, Volume 113, Issue 3–4, pp 1049–1063 | Cite as

Economic costs of ocean acidification: a look into the impacts on global shellfish production

  • Daiju Narita
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard S. J. Tol
Article

Abstract

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.

Supplementary material

10584_2011_383_MOESM1_ESM.docx (62 kb)
ESM 1(DOCX 61 kb)

References

  1. Brander L, Rehdanz K, Tol R, van Beukering P (2009) The economic impact of ocean acidification on coral reefs. ESRI Working Paper 282. Economic and Social Research Institute, DublinGoogle Scholar
  2. Burnett LE (1997) The challenges of living in hypoxic and hypercapnic aquatic environments. Integr Comp Biol 37:633–640CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2003) Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425:365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2005) Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean. J Geophys Res 110:C09S04. doi:10.1029/2004JC002671 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cooley SR, Doney SC (2009) Anticipating ocean acidification’s economic consequences for commercial fisheries. Environ Res Lett 4:024007. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Delgado CL, Wada N, Rosegrant MW, Meijer S, Ahmed M (2003) Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., and WorldFish Center, Penang, MalaysiaGoogle Scholar
  7. Dey, MM. et al. (2008) Strategies and options for increasing and sustaining fisheries and aquaculture production to benefit poorer households in Asia. WorldFish Center Studies and Reviews No. 1823. The WorldFish Center, Penang, MalaysiaGoogle Scholar
  8. Doney SC, Fabry VJ, Feely RA, Kleypas JA (2009) Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem. Annual Review of Marine Science 1:169–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. FAO (2008) FAO Yearbook 2006: Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  10. FAO (2010) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2010. FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  11. Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon JM, Ianson D, Hales B (2008) Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf. Science 320:1490–1492CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gaffin S, Rosenzweig C, Xing X, Yetman G (2004) Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Glob Environ Chang 14(2):105–123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gazeau F, Quiblier C, Jansen JM, Gattuso J-P, Middelburg JJ, Heip CHR (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07603. doi:10.1029/2006GL028554 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hendriks IE, Duarte CM, Álvarez M (2010) Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: A meta-analysis, Estuarine. Coastal and Shelf Science 86(2):157–164CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. IPCC, 2001. IPCC Third Assessment Report.Google Scholar
  16. Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim RN, Singh GG (2010) Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. Ecol Lett 13(11):1419–1434CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Lischka S, Büdenbender J, Boxhammer T, Riebesell U (2011) Impact of ocean acidification and elevated temperatures on early juveniles of the polar shelled pteropod Limacina helicina: mortality, shell degradation, and shell growth. Biogeosciences 8:919–932CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Michaelidis B, Ouzounis C, Paleras A, Pörtner HO (2005) Effects of long-term moderate hypercapnia on acid–base balance and growth rate in marine mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 293:109–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Nordhaus W (2008) A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. Yale University Press, New Haven, CTGoogle Scholar
  20. Orr JC et al (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681–685CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Pillay TVR, Kutty MN (2005) Aquaculture: Principles and Practices, 2nd edn. Blackwell Publishing, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  22. Ries JB, Cohen AL, McCorkle DC (2009) Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO2-induced ocean acidification. Geology 37:1131–1134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Rosegrant MW, Cline SA (2003) Global food security: Challenges and policies. Science 302:1917–1919CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Sabine CL et al (2004) The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2. Science 305(5682):367–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Stern N (2006) The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  26. Sunday JM, Crim RN, Harley CDG, Hart MW (2011) Quantifying Rates of Evolutionary Adaptation in Response to Ocean Acidification. PLoS One 6(8):e22881. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022881 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Thomsen J, Gutowska MA, Saphörster J, Heinemann A, Fietzke J, Hiebenthal C, Eisenhauer A, Körtzinger A, Wahl M, Melzner F (2010) Calcifying invertebrates succeed in a naturally CO2 enriched coastal habitat but are threatened by high levels of future acidification. Biogeosciences 7:3879–3891CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Tol RSJ (2002) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change, part 1: Benchmark estimates. Environ Resour Econ 21(2):47–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Tol RSJ (2009) The economic effects of climate change. J Econ Perspect 23(2):29–51CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Tunnicliffe V, Davies KTA, Butterfield DA, Embley RW, Rose JM, Chadwick WW Jr (2009) Survival of mussels in extremely acidic waters on a submarine volcano. Nat Geosci 2:344–348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Van Vuuren DP, Lucas PL, Hilderink H (2007) Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels. Glob Environ Chang 17:114–130CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daiju Narita
    • 1
  • Katrin Rehdanz
    • 1
    • 2
  • Richard S. J. Tol
    • 3
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Kiel Institute for the World EconomyKielGermany
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsChristian-Albrechts-University of KielKielGermany
  3. 3.Economic and Social Research Institute, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s QuayDublin 2Ireland
  4. 4.Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  5. 5.Department of Spatial EconomicsVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  6. 6.Department of EconomicsArts Building, Trinity CollegeDublin 2Ireland

Personalised recommendations