Comment on “Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change” by Troccoli et al.
- 217 Downloads
Troccoli et al. (Climatic Change, published online 14th May, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x), analysed different projections from global climate models in order to assess the frequency of storm surges in Venice during the 21st century under a climate change context. They concluded that the frequency of storm surges would decrease by about 30%, and that this reduction would compensate the expected mean sea level rise. Their final statement was that “the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered”. Although we agree in the expected reduction of storm surges, we strongly disagree in their final conclusion. First, because the impact of storm surges not only depends on the number of extreme surge events, but also on their intensity, that was not explicitely addressed. Second, because their estimates of mean sea level change for the 21st century are largely underestimated, as they miss some of the components driving sea level variability. Using state-of-the-art estimates for the thermosteric, mass and tidal contributions we show that the flooding events in Venice are expected to dramatically increase in a climate change scenario.
KeywordsFlooding Event Climate Change Scenario Return Level Water Mass Addition
This work has been carried out in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología). Funding from the Platja de Palma Consortium is also acknowledged. M. Marcos acknowledges a “Ramon y Cajal” contract funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and G. Jordà acknowledges a “JAE-DOC” contract funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC).
- Church JA, Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan MT, Qin D, Woodworth PL (2001) Changes in Sea Level. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 639–694Google Scholar
- Herrmann M, Somot S (2008) Relevance of ERA40 dynamical downscaling for modeling deep convection in the Mediterranean Sea. Geophys Res Lett 35(L04607):1–5Google Scholar
- IPCC 2007: Climate Change 2008: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of the Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 ppGoogle Scholar
- Jordà G, Gomis D, Álvarez-Fanjul E, Somot S (2011) Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean sea level variability under different climate change scenarios. Glob Planet Change, In pressGoogle Scholar
- Lionello P (2005) Extreme storm surges in the Gulf of Venice: present and future climate. In: Fletcher C, Spencer T (eds) Venice and its lagoon, state of knowledge. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Troccoli A, Zambon F, Hodges KI and Marani M (2011) Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Climatic Change, published online 14th May, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x