Climatic Change

, Volume 109, Supplement 1, pp 365–386 | Cite as

Economic impacts of climate change on California agriculture

  • Olivier DeschenesEmail author
  • Charles KolstadEmail author


Using county-level data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Census of Agriculture, this study evaluates the effect of weather and climate on agricultural profits in the State of California. The approach is to estimate revenue less variable production cost per acre as a function of land characteristics, weather realizations, and climate. This model is then used to evaluate the effect of two scenarios of climate change for the state of California over the coming century. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change is associated with a negative effect on aggregate agricultural profits by the end of the century. There are significant caveats to this result, including the lack of statistical precision, and keeping water supply and farm prices constant.


Table Grape Community Climate System Model Crop Growth Model Climate Change Prediction Farm Profit 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We thank Ben Hansen and Katie Kimble for research assistance and three anonymous referees for their comments. We also acknowledge financial support from the California Energy Commission, through a grant to the University of California.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta BarbaraUSA
  2. 2.IZA and NBERSanta BarbaraUSA
  3. 3.RFF and NBERSanta BarbaraUSA

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