Climatic Change

, Volume 109, Supplement 1, pp 1–19 | Cite as

Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

  • Guido FrancoEmail author
  • Daniel R. Cayan
  • Susanne Moser
  • Michael Hanemann
  • Myoung-Ae Jones


Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California’s landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered.


Emission Scenario Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Variable Infiltration Capacity Beach Nourishment Parallel Climate Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This paper reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the California Energy Commission or the state of California.


  1. Adams R, Wu J, Houston L (2003) The effects of climate change on yields and water use of major California crops. In: Wilson, T, Williams L, Smith J, Mendelsohn R (eds) Global climate change and California: potential implications for ecosystems, health, and the economy. Appendix IX. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC 500-03-058Google Scholar
  2. Adams P, Inman D, Lovering J (2011) Effects of climate change and wave direction on longshore sediment transport patterns in Southern California. Clim Change (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0317-0
  3. Adger W, Eakin H, Winkels A (2009) Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change. Front Ecol Environ 7(3):150–157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Aspen Environmental Group (2005) Potential changes in hydropower production from global climate change in California and the Western United States. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-700-2005-010Google Scholar
  5. Auffhammer M, Aroonruegsawat A (2011) Simulating California’s future residential electricity demand under different scenarios of climate change, electricity prices and population electricity demand. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0299-y
  6. Baldocchi D, Wong S (2008) Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California. Clim Chang 87(Suppl1):S153–S166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Barnett T, Malone R, Pennell W, Stammer D, Semtner A, Washington W (2004) The effects of climate change on water resources in the west: introduction and overview. Clim Chang 62:1–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Basu R, Ostro B (2008) A multicounty analysis identifying the populations vulnerable to mortality associated with high ambient temperature in California. Am J Epidemiol. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwn170
  9. Basu R, Wen-Ying F, Ostro B (2008) Characterizing temperature and mortality in nine California counties. Epidemiology. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31815c1da7
  10. Battles J, Robards T, Das A, Stewart W (2009) Projecting climate change impacts on forest growth and yield for California’s Sierran mixed conifer forests. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2009-047-FGoogle Scholar
  11. Bender F, Ramanathan V, Tselioudis G (2011) Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2009: observational support for a poleward shift. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1065-6
  12. Bierwagen B, Theobald D, Pyke C, Choate A, Groth P, Thomas JV, Morefield P (2010) National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. PNAS. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1002096107
  13. Bonfils C, Duffy P, Santer B, Wigley T, Lobell DB, Phillips TJ, Doutriaux C (2008) Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Clim Chang 87:43–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Brekke LD, Dettinger MD, Maurer EP, Anderson M (2008) Significance of model credibility in projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological impacts of climate change. Clim Chang. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9388-3
  15. Bryant B, Westerling A (2009) Potential effects of climate change on residential wildfire risk in California. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2009-048-FGoogle Scholar
  16. Buntine C, Proctor J, Knight B (2008) Energy performance of hot, dry optimized air-conditioning systems. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2008-056Google Scholar
  17. CalFire (2010) California’s forests and rangelands: 2010 Assessment. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Accessed 25 July 2011
  18. California Natural Resources Agency (2009) 2009 California climate adaptation strategy. Accessed 20 July 2011
  19. Cayan D, Bromirski P, Hayhoe K, Tyree M, Dettinger M, Flick R (2008a) Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast. Clim Chang 87(Suppl 1):S57–S73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Cayan D, Luers A, Franco G, Hanemann M, Croes B, Vine E (2008b) Overview of the California climate change scenarios project. Clim Chang 87(Suppl 1):S1–S6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Cayan D, Maurer E, Dettinger M, Tyree M, Hayhoe K (2008c) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Clim Chang. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6
  22. Cayan D, Tyree M, Dettinger M, Hidalgo M, Das T, Maurer E, Bromirski P, Graham N, Flick R (2009) Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for the California 2009 climate change scenarios Assessment. California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CEC-500-2009-014-FGoogle Scholar
  23. Chao B, Wu Y, Li S (2008) Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level. Science 320(5873):212–214CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Chung F, Anderson J, Arora S et al (2009) Using future climate projections to support water resources decision making in California. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2009-052-FGoogle Scholar
  25. Church J, White N (2006) A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826
  26. Connell-Buck c, Medellín-Azuara J, Lund J, Madani K (2011) Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0302-7
  27. Coquard J, Duffy P, Taylor K, Iorio J (2004) Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models. Clim Dyn 23(5):455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Das T, Dettinger M, Cayan D, Hidalgo H (2011) Potential increase in floods in California’s Sierra Nevada under future climate projections. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0298-z
  29. Delgrosso S, Mosier A, Parton W, Ojima D (2005) DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary soil N2O and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA. Soil Tillage Res 83:9–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. DWR (2005) The California water plan update. Bulletin 160–05. California Department of Water Resources.
  31. EIA. State energy data system. Accessed 31 July 2011
  32. Ekstrom J, Moser S, Torn M (2011) Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation: A Diagnostic Framework. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2011-004
  33. Field C, Daily B, Davis F, Gaines S, Matson P, Melack J, Miller N (1999) Confronting climate change in California: ecological impacts on the golden state. Union of Concerned Scientists and Ecological Society of America. Accessed 20 July 2011
  34. Florsheim J, Dettinger M (2007) Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2007GL031702
  35. Franco G, Sanstad A (2008) Climate change and electricity demand in California. Clim Chang 87(Suppl 1):S139–S151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Franco G, Cayan D, Luers A, Hanemann M, Croes B (2008) Linking climate change science with policy in California. Clim Chang 87(Suppl 1):S7–S20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Gleick P, Maurer E (1990) Assessing the costs of adapting to sea-level rise: a case study of San Francisco Bay. Pacific Institute, OaklandGoogle Scholar
  38. Green R, Basu R, Malig B, Broadwin R, Kim J, Ostro B (2010) The effect of temperature on hospital admissions in nine California counties. Int J Public Health. doi: 10.1007/s00038-009-0076-0
  39. Hanak E, Lund J, Dinar A, Gray B, Howitt R, Mount J, Moyle P, Thompson B (2011) Managing California’s water: from conflict to reconciliation. Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
  40. Hannah Lee, Costello C, Guo C, Ries L, Kolstad C, Panitz D, Snider N (2011) The impact of climate change on California timberlands. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0307-2
  41. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteor Soc 90:1095–1107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Hayhoe K, Cayan D, Field C et al (2004) Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. PNAS 101(34):12422–12427CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Heberger M, Cooley H, Herrera P, Gleick P, Moore E (2011) Potential Impacts of Increased Coastal Flooding in California Due to Sea-Level Rise. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0308-1
  44. Hidalgo H, Dettinger M, Cayan D (2008) Downscaling with constructed analogues: daily precipitation and temperature fields over the United States. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC-500-2007-123Google Scholar
  45. Howitt R, Tauber M, Pienaar E (2003) Impacts of global climate change on California’s agricultural water demand. In: Wilson, T, Williams L, Smith J, Mendelsohn R (eds) Global climate change and California: potential implications for ecosystems, health, and the economy. Appendix X. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC 500-03-058Google Scholar
  46. Hughes M, Hall A, Kim J (2011) Human-induced changes in Wind, Temperature and Relative Humidity during Santa Ana events. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0300-9
  47. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution to the fourth assessment report by working group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY.
  48. Knowles N (2010) Potential inundation due to rising sea levels in the San Francisco Bay Region. San Franc Estuary Watershed Sci 8(1);issue=1
  49. Lee J, De Gryze S, Six J (2011) Effect of climate change on field crop production in California’s Central Valley. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0305-4
  50. Lobell D, Field C (2011) California Perennial Crops in a Changing Climate. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0303-6
  51. Lobell D, Torney A, Field C (2011) Climate Extremes in California Agriculture. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0304-5
  52. MacDonald GM (2010) Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest. PNAS 107(50):21256–21262Google Scholar
  53. Madani K, Lund J (2009) Modeling California’s high-elevation hydropower systems in energy units. Water Resour Res. doi: 10.1029/2008WR007206
  54. Mahmud A, Tyree M, Cayan D, Motallebi N, Kleeman M (2008) Statistical downscaling of climate change impacts on ozone concentrations in California. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2007JD009534
  55. Mastrandrea M, Tebaldi C, Snyder C, Schneider S (2011) Current and future impacts of extreme events in California. Clim Change (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0311-6
  56. Maurer E, Hidalgo H (2008) Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:551–563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Maurer E, Hidalgo H, Das T, Dettinger M, Cayan D (2010) The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14(6):1125–1138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. McCauley D (2006) Selling out on nature. Nature 443:26–27Google Scholar
  59. Medellin-Azuara J, Howitt R, MacEwan D, Lund J (2011) Economic Impacts of Climate-Related Agricultural Yield Changes in California. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0314-3
  60. Messner S, Miranda S, Young E, Hedge N (2011) Climate change-related Impacts in the San Diego region by 2050. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0316-1
  61. Miller N, Hayhoe K, Jin J, Auffhammer M (2008) Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:1834–1844CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Moser S, Franco B, Cayan D (2008) The future is now: an update on climate change science impacts and response options for California. California Climate Change Center. CEC-500-2008-077Google Scholar
  63. Moser S, Franco G, Pittiglio S, Chou W, Cayan D (2009) The future is now: an update on climate change science impacts and response options for california. California Climate Change Center. CEC-500-2008-071
  64. NCA (2011) National climate assessment. Strategy—summary. Accessed on 8 July 2011
  65. Newmann J, Hudgens D, Herr J, Kassakian J (2003) Market impacts of sea level rise on California coasts. In: Wilson T, Williams L, Smith J, Mendelsohn R (eds) Global climate change and California: potential implications for ecosystems, health, and the economy. Appendix VIII. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC 500-03-058Google Scholar
  66. Nordhaus W (2008) A question of balance: weighing the options on global warming policies. Yale University Press, New HavenGoogle Scholar
  67. NRC (2010) America’s climate choices: adapting to the impacts of climate change. National Academies Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  68. OPC (2010) State of California sea-level rise interim guidance document. California Ocean Protection CouncilGoogle Scholar
  69. Pendleton L, King P, Mohn C, Webster D, Vaughn R, Adams P (2011) Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0309-0
  70. Pierce D, Barnett T, Santer B, Gleckler P (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0900094106
  71. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810):368–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Revell D, Battalio R, Spear B, Ruggiero P, Vandever J (2011) A Methodology for Predicting Future Coastal Hazards due to Sea-level Rise on the California Coast. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0315-2
  73. Roos M (1998) The great new year’s flood of 1997 in Northern California. Proc. Annual PACLIM Workshop. Interagency Ecology Program Technical Report 57:107–116. Google Scholar
  74. Sailor D, Pavlova A (2003) Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change. Energy 28(9)Google Scholar
  75. Salathé E (2006) Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026882
  76. Sanstad A, Johnson H, Goldstein N, Franco G (2011) Projecting long-run socioeconomic and demographic trends in California under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0296-1
  77. Schlenker W, Hanemann M, Fisher A (2007) Water availability, degree days, and the potential impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California. Clim Chang 81(1):19–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Serafy S (1998) Pricing the invaluable: the value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Ecol Econ 25:25–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Shaw R, Pendleton L, Cameron D, Morris B, Bachelet D, Klausmeyer K, MacKenzie J, Conklin D, Bratman G, Lenihan J, Haunreiter E, Daly C, Roehrdancz P (2011) The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0313-4
  80. Shonkoff S, Morello-Frosch R, Pastor M, Sadd J (2011) The Climate Gap: Environmental Health and Equity Implications of Climate Change and Mitigation Policies in California - A Review of the Literature. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7
  81. Sohngen B, Mendelsohn R, Sedjo R (2001) A global model of climate change impacts on timber markets. Am J Agric Econ 26(2):326–343Google Scholar
  82. Tol R (2007) The social cost of carbon: trends, outliers and catastrophes. Economics Discussion Papers. Discussion Paper 2007–44Google Scholar
  83. Vicuna S, Dracup J, Dale L (2011) Climate change impacts on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0301-8
  84. Watkiss P, Downing T (2008) The social cost of carbon: valuation estimates and their use in UK policy. Integr Assess J 8:85–105Google Scholar
  85. Westerling A, Bryant B (2008) Climate change and wildfire in California. Clim Chang 87(1):231–249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Westerling A, Gershunov A, Cayan D (2003) Statistical forecasts of the 2003 Western wildfire season using canonical correlation analysis. Exp Long-Lead Forecast Bull 12(1,2):49–53Google Scholar
  87. Westerling A, Bryant B, Preisler H, Holmes T, Hidalgo H, Das T, Shrestha S (2011) Climate Change and Growth Scenarios for California Wildfire. Clim Change 109 (Suppl 1), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9
  88. Wilson T, Williams L, Smith J, Mendelsohn R (2003) Global climate change and California: potential implications for ecosystems, health, and the economy. California Energy Commission, Sacramento. CEC 500-03-058. pp 1–138Google Scholar
  89. Wood A, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier D (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Chang 62:189–216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Yin J (2005) A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of the 21st century climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18701CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Guido Franco
    • 1
    Email author
  • Daniel R. Cayan
    • 2
    • 6
  • Susanne Moser
    • 3
    • 7
  • Michael Hanemann
    • 4
  • Myoung-Ae Jones
    • 5
  1. 1.Public Interest Energy ResearchCalifornia Energy CommissionSacramentoUSA
  2. 2.Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California, San DiegoLa JollaUSA
  3. 3.Stanford UniversitySanta CruzUSA
  4. 4.Economics DepartmentArizona State UniversityTempeUSA
  5. 5.Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California, San DiegoSacramentoUSA
  6. 6.U.S. Geological SurveyLa JollaUSA
  7. 7.Susanne Moser Research & ConsultingSanta CruzUSA

Personalised recommendations