Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates
- 1.3k Downloads
This paper explores the independent and combined effects of changes in temperature and runoff volume on California’s water supply and potential water management adaptations. Least-cost water supply system adaptation is explored for two climate scenarios: 1) warmer-drier conditions, and 2) warmer conditions without change in total runoff, using the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California’s intertied water supply system for 2050 water demands. The warm-dry hydrology was developed from downscaled effects of the GFDL CM2.1 (A2 emissions scenario) global climate model for a 30-year period centered at 2085. The warm-only scenario was developed from the warm-dry hydrology, preserving its seasonal runoff shift while maintaining mean annual flows from the historical hydrology. This separates the runoff volume and temperature effects of climate change on water availability and management adaptations. A warmer climate alone reduces water deliveries and increases costs, but much less than a warmer-drier climate, if the water supply system is well managed. Climate changes result in major changes in reservoir operations, cyclic storage of groundwater, and hydropower operations.
KeywordsGlobal Climate Model Snow Water Equivalent Groundwater Storage Groundwater Inflow Surface Water Storage
This work was supported by the California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) program.
- Adams RM, Wu J, Houston LL (2003) Climate change and California, appendix IX: the effects of climate change on yields and water use of major California crops. California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research (PIER), SacramentoGoogle Scholar
- Bedsworth L, Hanak E (2008) Preparing California for a changing climate. Public Policy Institute of California, San FranciscoGoogle Scholar
- Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeGoogle Scholar
- Connell CR (2009) Bring the heat but hope for rain: adapting to climate warming in California. Masters Thesis, University of California, DavisGoogle Scholar
- Hanak E, Lund JR (2008) Adapting California’s water management to climate change. Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
- Hazen A (1914) Storage to be provided in impounding reservoirs for municpal water supply. Trans Am Soc Civ Eng 77:1539–1640Google Scholar
- Hoshi K, Burges SJ, Yamaoka I (1978) Reservoir design capacities for various seasonal operational hydrology models. Proc JSCE 273:121–134Google Scholar
- Howitt RE, Medellin-Azuara J, MacEwan D (2009) Estimating economic impacts of agricultural yield related changes. California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CAGoogle Scholar
- Jenkins MW, Draper AJ, Lund JR, Howitt RE, Tanaka SK, Ritzema R, Marques GF, Msangi SM, Newlin BD, Van Lienden BJ, Davis MD, Ward a KB (2001) Improving California water management: optimizing value and flexibility. University of California Davis, DavisGoogle Scholar
- Jenkins MW, Lund JR, Howitt RE (2003) Using economic loss functions to value urban water scarcity in California. J Am Water Works Assoc 95(2):58-+Google Scholar
- Jenkins MW, Medellin-Azuara J, Lund JR (2007) California urban water demands for year 2050. California Energy Commission, PIER Program. CEC-500-2005-195, Sacramento, CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
- Landis JD, Reilly M (2002) How we will grow: baseline projections of California’s urban footprint through the year 2100. Project Completion Report, Department of City and Regional Planning, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley., Berkeley, CAGoogle Scholar
- Lund JR, Hanak E, Fleenor W, Howitt R, Mount J, Moyle P (2007) Envisioning futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Public Policy Institute of California, San FranciscoGoogle Scholar
- Miller NL, Bashford KE, Strem E (2003) Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology. J Water Resour Plann Manag 39(4):771–784Google Scholar
- Null SE, Viers JH, Mount JF (2009) The naked Sierra Nevada: anticipated changes to unimpaired hydrology under climate warming. Unpublished dataGoogle Scholar
- Ritzema RS, Newlin BD, Van Lienden BJ (2001) Appendix H: Infrastructure. CALFED Report: Improving California Water Management: Optimizing Value and Flexibility.Google Scholar
- Scibek J, Allen DM (2006) Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resources Research, 42(W11405).Google Scholar
- USBR (1997) Central Valley project improvement act programmatic environmental impact statement. United States Bureau of Reclamation, SacramentoGoogle Scholar
- Zhu TJ, Jenkins MW, Lund JR (2003) Appendix A: climate change surface and groundwater hydrologies for modeling water supply management. Available at <http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/ReportCEC/AppendixA.pdf>, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California- Davis, Davis, California.