Climatic Change

, Volume 109, Supplement 1, pp 21–42 | Cite as

Projecting long-run socioeconomic and demographic trends in California under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios

  • Alan H. SanstadEmail author
  • Hans Johnson
  • Noah Goldstein
  • Guido Franco


The State of California is developing and implementing a new generation of environmental policies to transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system in order to reduce the risks of future damages from global climate change. At the same time, it is increasingly clear that climate change impacts are already occurring and that further effects cannot be completely avoided. Thus, anticipating and planning for emerging and potential future climate change impacts in California must complement the state’s greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. These impacts will depend substantially on the future evolution of the state’s social structure and economy. To support impact studies, this report describes socioeconomic storylines and key scenario elements for California that are broadly consistent with the global “A2” and “B1” storylines in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including qualitative socioeconomic context as well as quantitative projections of key variables such as population, urbanization patterns, economic growth, and electricity prices.


Electricity Price Urban Extent Capita Income Growth California Energy Commission Potential Climate Change Impact 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We are indebted to Alexei Sankovski and William Pepper of ICF International, and Detlef Van Vuuren of the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Hygiene (RIVM), The Netherlands, for making available detailed results from the SRES A2/ASF and B1/IMAGE scenarios, respectively; Hugh Pitcher of the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) for his advice on the methodology and results of the SRES; and Martin Ross of the Research Triangle Institute for providing results from the ADAGE model analysis of S. 2191. We would like to thank Steven Smith of the JGCRI, Gary Yohe, and an anonymous referee for their invaluable comments and suggestions. Finally, we acknowledge and thank Mark Wilson for his outstanding editorial work.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alan H. Sanstad
    • 1
    Email author
  • Hans Johnson
    • 2
  • Noah Goldstein
    • 3
  • Guido Franco
    • 4
  1. 1.Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyUSA
  2. 2.Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaSacramentoUSA
  3. 3.Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryLivermoreUSA
  4. 4.California Energy CommissionSacramentoUSA

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