Climatic Change

, Volume 110, Issue 3–4, pp 845–878 | Cite as

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

Review of the current state of six ‘tipping elements of the climate system’
  • Anders Levermann
  • Jonathan L. Bamber
  • Sybren Drijfhout
  • Andrey Ganopolski
  • Winfried Haeberli
  • Neil R. P. Harris
  • Matthias Huss
  • Kirstin Krüger
  • Timothy M. Lenton
  • Ronald W. Lindsay
  • Dirk Notz
  • Peter Wadhams
  • Susanne Weber
Article

Abstract

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anders Levermann
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jonathan L. Bamber
    • 3
  • Sybren Drijfhout
    • 4
  • Andrey Ganopolski
    • 1
  • Winfried Haeberli
    • 5
  • Neil R. P. Harris
    • 6
  • Matthias Huss
    • 7
  • Kirstin Krüger
    • 8
  • Timothy M. Lenton
    • 9
  • Ronald W. Lindsay
    • 10
  • Dirk Notz
    • 11
  • Peter Wadhams
    • 12
  • Susanne Weber
    • 4
  1. 1.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
  2. 2.University of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
  3. 3.University of BristolBristolUK
  4. 4.Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteDe BiltThe Netherlands
  5. 5.University of ZurichZurichSwitzerland
  6. 6.European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit, Department of ChemistryCambridge UniversityCambridgeUK
  7. 7.University of FribourgFribourgSwitzerland
  8. 8.Leibniz Institute for Marine SciencesKielGermany
  9. 9.College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
  10. 10.University of WashingtonSeattleUSA
  11. 11.Max-Planck-Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
  12. 12.Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical PhysicsCambridge UniversityCambridgeUK

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