Climatic Change

, Volume 109, Issue 3–4, pp 617–645 | Cite as

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

  • Caroline A. Katsman
  • A. Sterl
  • J. J. Beersma
  • H. W. van den Brink
  • J. A. Church
  • W. Hazeleger
  • R. E. Kopp
  • D. Kroon
  • J. Kwadijk
  • R. Lammersen
  • J. Lowe
  • M. Oppenheimer
  • H. -P. Plag
  • J. Ridley
  • H. von Storch
  • D. G. Vaughan
  • P. Vellinga
  • L. L. A. Vermeersen
  • R. S. W. van de Wal
  • R. Weisse
Open Access
Article

Abstract

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

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© The Author(s) 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Caroline A. Katsman
    • 1
  • A. Sterl
    • 2
  • J. J. Beersma
    • 2
  • H. W. van den Brink
    • 3
  • J. A. Church
    • 4
  • W. Hazeleger
    • 2
  • R. E. Kopp
    • 5
  • D. Kroon
    • 6
    • 7
  • J. Kwadijk
    • 8
  • R. Lammersen
    • 9
  • J. Lowe
    • 10
  • M. Oppenheimer
    • 5
  • H. -P. Plag
    • 11
  • J. Ridley
    • 10
  • H. von Storch
    • 12
  • D. G. Vaughan
    • 13
  • P. Vellinga
    • 14
  • L. L. A. Vermeersen
    • 15
  • R. S. W. van de Wal
    • 16
  • R. Weisse
    • 12
  1. 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)Global Climate DivisionAE De BiltThe Netherlands
  2. 2.KNMIDe BiltThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Meteo Consult BVWageningenThe Netherlands
  4. 4.Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRCHobartAustralia
  5. 5.Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of GeosciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonUSA
  6. 6.School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghScotland
  7. 7.Free UniversityAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  8. 8.DeltaresDelftThe Netherlands
  9. 9.Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst LelystadThe Netherlands
  10. 10.Met Office Hadley CentreMet OfficeUK
  11. 11.Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology and Seismological LaboratoryUniversity of NevadaCarson CityUSA
  12. 12.GKSS Research CenterInstitute for Coastal ResearchGeesthachtGermany
  13. 13.British Antarctic SurveyNatural Environment Research CouncilCambridgeUK
  14. 14.AlterraWageningen University and Research CentreWageningenThe Netherlands
  15. 15.DEOSDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands
  16. 16.Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands

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