Climatic Change

, Volume 108, Issue 1–2, pp 357–382

The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends

  • Eugene C. Cordero
  • Wittaya Kessomkiat
  • John Abatzoglou
  • Steven A. Mauget
Article

Abstract

Regional changes in California surface temperatures over the last 80 years are analyzed using station data from the US Historical Climate Network and the National Weather Service Cooperative Network. Statistical analyses using annual and seasonal temperature data over the last 80 years show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns in trends of maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to trends of minimum temperature (Tmin). For trends computed between 1918 and 2006, the rate of warming in Tmin is greater than that of Tmax. Trends computed since 1970 show an amplified warming rate compared to trends computed from 1918, and the rate of warming is comparable between Tmin and Tmax. This is especially true in the southern deserts, where warming trends during spring (March–May) are exceptionally large. While observations show coherent statewide positive trends in Tmin, trends in Tmax vary on finer spatial and temporal scales. Accompanying the observed statewide warming from 1970 to 2006, regional cooling trends in Tmax are observed during winter and summer. These signatures of regional temperature change suggest that a collection of different forcing mechanisms or feedback processes must be present to produce these responses.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Abatzoglou JT (2010) Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the Western United States. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.2137 Google Scholar
  2. Abatzoglou JT, Redmond KT (2007) The asymmetry of trends in spring and autumn temperature and circulation regimes over western North America. Geophys Res Lett 34. doi:10.1029/2007GL030891
  3. Abatzoglou JT, Redmond KT, Edwards LE (2009) Classification of regional climate variability in the State of California. Appl Meteorol Climatol 48:1527–1541CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Alfaro EJ, Gershunov A, Cayan D (2006) Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the Central and Western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature. J Clim 19:1407–1421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bonan GB (2001) Observational evidence for reduction of daily maximum temperature by croplands in the midwest United States. J Clim 14:2430–2442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bonfils C, Lobell DB (2007) Empirical evidence for a recent slowdown in irrigation-induced cooling. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:13582–13587CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bonfils C, Duffy PB, Lobell DB (2006) Comments on methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change? J Clim 20:4486–4489CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bonfils C, Duffy PB, Santer BD, Wigley TML, Lobell DB, Phillips TJ, Doutriaux C (2008) Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Climatic Change 87(suppl 1):S43–S55. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9374-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD, Tyree M, Hayhoe K (2008) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change 87(suppl 1):S21–S42. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Christy JR, Norris WB, Redmond KT, Gallo KP (2006) Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change? J Clim 19:548–563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cordero E, Forster PMdF (2006) Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4. Atmos Chem Phys 6:5369–5380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hayhoe K, Cayan D, Field CB, Frumhoff PC, Maurer EP, Miller NL, Moser SC, Schneider SH, Cahill KN, Cleland EE, Dale L, Drapek R, Hanemann RM, Kalkstein LS, Lenihan J, Lunch CK, Neilson RP, Sheridan SC, Verville JH (2004) Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proc Natl Acad Sci 101:12422–12427CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo J, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. Chapter 9 in Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663–745Google Scholar
  14. Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J (2010) Regional precipitation trends: distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing. J Clim 23:2131–2145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  16. Kalnay E, Cai M (2003) Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423:528–531CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kueppers LM, Snyder MA, Sloan LC (2007) Irrigation cooling effect: regional climate forcing by land-use change. Geophys Res Lett 34:L03703. doi:10 1029/2006GL028679 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. LaDochy S, Medina R, Patzert W (2007) Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Clim Res 33:159–169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lebassi B, Gonzalez J, Fabris D, Maurer E, Miller N, Milesi C, Switzer P, Bornstein R (2009) Observed 1970–2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California. J Clim 22:3558–3573CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Lund R, Seymour L, Kafadar K (2001) Temperature trends in the United States. Environmetrics 12:673–690. doi:610.1002/env.1468 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mauget SA (2003a) Intra- to multi-decadal climate variability over the Continental United States: 1932–1999. J Clim 16:2215–2231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Mauget SA (2003b) Multi-decadal regime shifts in U.S. streamflow, precipitation, and temperature at the end of the Twentieth Century. J Clim 16:3905–3916CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Mendenhall W, Wackerly DD, Sheaffer RL (1990) Mathematical statistics with applications. PWS-Kent, BostonGoogle Scholar
  25. Peterson TC (2003) Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperature in the contiguous United States: no difference found. J Clim 16:2941–2959CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Redmond KT, Koch RW (1991) Surface climate streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resour Res 27:2381–2399. doi:10.1029/91WR00690 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Boyle JS, Gaffen DJ, Hnilo JJ, Nychka D, Parker DE, Taylor KE (2000) Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series. J Geophys Res Atmos 105(D6):7337–7356CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Saxena VK, Yu S (1998) Searching for a regional fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing in the southeastern US. Geophys Res Lett 25:2833–2836CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Stafford JM, Wendler G, Curtis J (2000) Temperature and precipitation of Alaska: 50 year trend analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 67:33–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Vose RS, Easterling DR, Gleason B (2005) Maximum and minimum temperature trend for the globe: an update through 2004. Geophys Res Lett 32:L23822. doi:23810.21029/22005GL024379 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wild M, Ohmura A, Makowski K (2007) Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34. doi:10.1029/2006GL028031
  32. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, San DiegoGoogle Scholar
  33. Williams CN, Menne MJ, Vose R, Eastering DR (2007) United States Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature and precipitation data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: ORNL/CDIAC-187Google Scholar
  34. Wu QG, Straus DM (2004) On the existence of hemisphere-wide climate variations. J Geophys Res Atmos 109:D06118. doi:10.1029/2003JD004230 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Yang F, Kumar A, Wang W, Juang H-MH, Kanamitsu M (2001) Snow-albedo feedback and seasonal climate variability over North America. J Clim 14:4245–4248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Zhou LM, Dickinson RE, Dirmeyer P, Dai A, Min S-K (2009) Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in multi-model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 36:L02702. doi:10.1029/2008GL036141 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eugene C. Cordero
    • 1
  • Wittaya Kessomkiat
    • 1
  • John Abatzoglou
    • 2
  • Steven A. Mauget
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Meteorology and Climate ScienceSan José State UniversitySan JoséUSA
  2. 2.Department of GeographyUniversity of IdahoMoscowUSA
  3. 3.U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research ServiceUSDA Plant Stress and Water Conservation LaboratoryLubbockUSA

Personalised recommendations