Climatic Change

, Volume 104, Issue 1, pp 51–87 | Cite as

The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework

  • Stéphane Hallegatte
  • Fanny Henriet
  • Jan Corfee-Morlot


Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities, people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties, methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research, including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Albala-Bertrand JM (1993) The political economy of large natural disasters with special reference to developing countries. Clarendon, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  2. Alley RB, Andrews JT, Barber DC, Clark PU (2005) Comment on “Catastrophic ice shelf breakup as the source of Heinrich event icebergs” by C. L. Hulbe et al. Paleoceanography 20:PA1009. doi:10.1029/2004PA001086
  3. Atkins D, Moy EM (2005) Left behind: the legacy of hurricane Katrina. Br Med J 331:916–918CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Aunan K, Patazay K, Aaheim HA, Seip HM (1998) Health and environmental benefits from air pollution reductions in Hungary. Sci Total Environ 212(Issue 2/3):245–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Balaras CA, Grossman G, Henning HM, Infante Ferreira CA, Podesser E, Wang L, Wiemken E (2007) Solar air conditioning in Europe—an overview. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 11:299–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bell M, Goldberg R, Hogrefe C, Kinney PL, Knowlton K, Lynn B, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Patz J (2007) Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities. Climatic Change 82:61–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Schöll R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81:71–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Benson C, Clay E (2004) Understanding the economic and financial impact of natural disasters. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The World Bank, Washington D.C.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Berger F (2003) Crise et reconversion dans la sidérurgie: étude comparée des bassins charbonniers de la Ruhr et du Nord-Pas-de-Calais ”, Mitteilungsblatt (Zeitschrift des Bochumer Instituts für soziale Bewegungen), Nr. 29/2003Google Scholar
  10. Bernstein M, Lempert R, Lougharn D, Ortiz D (2000) The public benefit of california’s investment in energy efficiency. In: RAND monograph report MR-1212.0-CEC. RAND, Santa MonicaGoogle Scholar
  11. Bigano A, Bosello F, Roson R, Tol RSJ (2006) Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism. FEEM Working Paper No. 135.2006Google Scholar
  12. Boarnet MG (1998) Business losses, transportation damages, and the Northridge earthquake. J Transp Stat 1:49–63Google Scholar
  13. Bollen et al (2009) Co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies: literature review and new results. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, forthcoming, ParisGoogle Scholar
  14. Bosello F, Roson R, Tol RSJ (2006) Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: human health. Ecol Econ, Elsevier 58(3):579–591Google Scholar
  15. Bosello F, Roson R, Tol RSJ (2007) Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: sea level rise. Environ Resour Econ 37:549–571CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Brookshire DS, Chang SE, Cochrane H, Olson R, Rose A, Steenson J (1997) Direct and indirect economic losses for earthquake damage. Earthq Spectra 13:683–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Burby RJ, Dalton LC (1994) Plans can matter! The role of land use plans and state planning mandates in limiting the development of hazardous areas, public administration review. American Society for Public AdministrationGoogle Scholar
  18. Butt AT et al (2005) The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali. Climatic Change 68:355–378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Callaway JM et al (2006) The Berg river dynamic spatial equilibrium model: a new tool for assessing the benefits and costs of alternatives for coping with water demand growth, climate variability, and climate change in the Western Cape. AIACC Working Paper 31, The AIACC Project Office, International START Secretariat, Washington, DC, p 41. Available on line at
  20. Camdessus M (2003) Financing water for all: report of the world panel on financing waterinfrastructure. In: Report written by James Winpenny, presented at 3rd World Water Forum, Kyoto, Japan, 16–23 March 2003.
  21. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2002) Country-level population and downscaled projections for the SRES B2 scenario, 1990–2100, beta version. CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY.
  22. Cho S, Gordon P, Moore J, Richardson H, Shinozuka M, Chang S (2001) Integrating transportation network and regional economic models to estimate the costs of a large urban earthquake. J Reg Sci 41:39–65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change 81:7–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Cifuentes LA, Sauma E, Jorquera H, Soto F (1999) Co-controls benefits analysis for Chile: preliminary estimation of the potential co-control benefits for Chile. COP-5 Progress Report, School of Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, October, revised 12 NovemberGoogle Scholar
  25. City of Chicago (2008) Chicago climate action plan. Available at
  26. Clark JR (1996) Coastal zone management handbook. Lewis Publishers, p 694Google Scholar
  27. Cochrane H (2004) Economic loss: myth and measurement. Disaster Prev Manag 13:290–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Connolly P (1999) Mexico city: our common future? Environ Urban 11(1):53–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Corfee-Morlot J, Cochran I, Hallegatte S, Teasdale P-J (2011) Multilevel risk governance and urban adaption policy. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9980-9 Google Scholar
  30. Crausse P, Bacon G (2007) Building thermics (materials and wall elements). PIRSEM notesGoogle Scholar
  31. Davis DL, Krupnick A, Thurston G (2000) Ancillary benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation: scope, scale and credibility. In: OECD et al. ancillary benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation, proceedings of an expert workshop. ParisGoogle Scholar
  32. Dessai (2003) Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change. Int J Biometeorol 48(1):37–44Google Scholar
  33. Dore M, Burton I (2001) The costs of adaptation to climate change in Canada: a stratified estimate by sectors and regions—social infrastructure. Climate Change Laboratory, Brock University, St. Catharines, OntarioGoogle Scholar
  34. EEA (European Environment Agency) (2007) Climate change and water adaptation issues. Technical Report, ISSN 1725–2237Google Scholar
  35. Elsner JB, Jagger TH (2006) Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. J Climate 19:2935–2952CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Emanuel K (2006) Climate and tropical cyclone activity: a new model downscaling approach. J Climate 19:4797–4802CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Emanuel K, Ravela S, Vivant E, Risi C (2006) A statistical-deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:299–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. ETUC: European Trade Union Confederation Report (2007) Climate change and employment. Impact on employment in the European Union-25 of climate change and CO2 emission reduction measures by 2030’.
  40. Evin C, d’Aubert F (2004) Rapport de la Commission d’Enquête de l’Assemblée Nationale sur les conséquences sanitaires et sociales de la canicule. Le drame de la canicule: une gestion déficiente révélatrice d’une crise structurelle. N°1455, 25 février 2004Google Scholar
  41. Fankhauser S, Smith JB, Tol RSJ (1999) Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions. Ecol Econ 30(1):67–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Franco G, Sanstad AH (2006) Climate change and electricity demand in California. California Energy Commission, PIER energy-related environmental research program. CEC-500-2005-201-SFGoogle Scholar
  43. Gleditsch NP (2007) Environmental change, security, and conflict. In: Crocker C, Hampson FO, Aall P (eds) Leashing the dogs of war: conflict management in a divided world. United States Institute of Peace Press, Washington, DC, pp 177–195Google Scholar
  44. Gleditsch NP, Nordås R, Salehyan I (2007) Climate change and conflict: the migration link. Coping with crisis working paper series: International Peace Academy, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  45. Gordon P, Richardson H, Davis B (1998) Transport-related impacts of the Northridge earthquake. J Transp Stat 1:21–36Google Scholar
  46. Graham LP, Hagemann S, Jaun S, Beniston M (2007) On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81:97–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Grazi F, van den Bergh JCJM (2008) Spatial organization, urban transport and climate policy: comparing instruments of spatial planning and policy. Ecol Econ. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.01.014 Google Scholar
  48. Grazi F, van den Bergh JCJM, van Ommeren JN (2008) An empirical analysis of urban form, transport and global warming. Energy J 29:97–122Google Scholar
  49. Greater London Authority (2008) The London climate change adaptation strategy. Accessed 25 Nov 2008
  50. Greenberg MR, Lahr M, Mantell N (2007) Understanding the economic costs and benefits of catastrophes and their aftermath: a review and suggestions for the U.S. federal government. Risk Anal 27:83–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Grimm NB, Faeth SH, Golubiewski NE, Redman CL, Wu J, Bai X, Briggs JM (2008) Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319(5864):756CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Grubb M, Vrolijk C, Brack D (1999) The Kyoto protocol: a guide and assesment. Royal Institut of International Affairs and Earthscan, London, p 342Google Scholar
  53. Gusdorf F, Hallegatte S, Lahellec A (2008) Time and space matter: how urban transitions create inequality. Glob Environ Change 18:708–719CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Hallegatte S (2006) A cost–benefit analysis of the New Orleans flood protection system, AEI-Brookings joint center. Regulatory Analysis 06-02Google Scholar
  55. Hallegatte S (2007) The use of synthetic hurricane tracks in risk analysis and climate change damage assessment. J Appl Meteo Climatol 46:1956–1966CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Hallegatte S (2008) An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina. Risk Anal 28(3). doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01046
  57. Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Change 19:240–247CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Hallegatte S, Dumas P (2008) Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change. Ecol Econ 68:777–786CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Hallegatte S, Hourcade J-C, Ambrosi P (2007) Using climate analogues for assessing climate change economic impacts. Climatic Change 82:47–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Hallegatte S, Ranger N, Mestre O, Dumas P, Corfee Morlot J, Herweijer C, Muir Wood R (2011) Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen. Clim ChangeGoogle Scholar
  61. Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2005) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob Environ Change Part A 15(3):253–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Hansen JE (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ Res Lett 2:024002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Hanson S, Nicholls R, Ranger N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Herweijer C, Chateau J (2011) A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Clim ChangeGoogle Scholar
  64. Hecker EJ, Irwin W, Cottrell D, Bruzewicz A (2000) Strategies for improving response and recovery in the future. Nat Hazards Rev 1:161–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Henriet F, Hallegatte S (2008) Assessing the consequences of natural disasters on production networks: a disaggregated approach, FEEM Working Paper No. 100.2008Google Scholar
  66. Homer-Dixon T (1999) Environment, scarcity and violence. Princeton University Press, PrincetonGoogle Scholar
  67. Howard RA, Matheson JE, North DW (1972) The decision to seed hurricanes. Science 176:1191–1202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Hunt A, Watkiss P (2011) Climate change impacts and adaption in cities: a review of the literature. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9975-6 Google Scholar
  69. IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  70. IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, Van der Linden P, Hanson C (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  71. IPCC (2007c) Climate change 2007: mitigation of climate change. In: Metz B, Davidson O, Bosch P, Dave R, Meyer L (eds) Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  72. Jamet S, Corfee-Morlot J (2009) Assessing the impacts of climate change: a literature review. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, forthcoming, ParisGoogle Scholar
  73. Kemfert C (2002) An integrated assessment model of economy-energy-climate—the model Wiagem. Integrated Assessment 3:4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Kikegawa Y, Genchi Y, Kondo H, Hanaki K (2006) Impact of city-block-scale countermeasures against urban heat island phenomena upon a building’s energy consumption for air conditioning. Appl Energy 83:649–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Kirshen P (2007) Adaptation options and cost in water supply: a report to the UNFCCC secretariat financial and technical support division.
  76. Kirshen PH, Ruth M, Anderson W, Lackshmanan TR, Chapra S, Schudik W, Edgers L, Gute D, Sanayei M, Vogel R (2004) Climate’s long-term impacts on metro Boston. Final report to the US EPA. Office of Research and Development, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  77. Klein RJT (2001) Adaptation to climate change in german official development assistance—an inventory of activities and opportunities, with a special focus on Africa. GTZ Climate Protection Programme, Eschborn 2001, p 42Google Scholar
  78. Knowlton K, Lynn B, Goldberg RA, Rosenzweig C, Hogrefe C, Klein Rosenthal J, Kinney PL (2007) Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York city region. Am J Public Health 97:2028–2034CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Knutson TR, Tuleya RE (2004) Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J Clim 17:3477–3495CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Knutson T, Sirutis J, Garner S, Vecchi G, Held I (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geosciences 1:359–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Kroll CA, Landis JD, Shen Q, Stryker S (1991) Economic impacts of the Loma Prieta earthquake: a focus on small business. Studies on the Loma Prieta Earthquake, University of California, Transportation CenterGoogle Scholar
  82. Kunzli N, Kaiser R, Medina S, Studnicka M, Chanel O, Filliger P, Herry M, Horak F Jr, Puybonnieux-Texler V, Quénel P, Schneider J, Seethaler R, Vergnaud J-C, Sommer H (2000) Public health impact of outdoor and traffic related air pollution: a European assessment. In: Lancet, vol 356, September 2, 2000Google Scholar
  83. Kupiainen K, Klimont Z (2004) Primary emissions of submicron and carbonaceous particles in Europe and the potential for their control. IIASA IR 04-079.Google Scholar
  84. Lafrance G, Desjarlais C (2006) Impact Socio-économique du Changement Climatique: La Demande d’Energie’ Rapport de recherche OuranosGoogle Scholar
  85. Lecocq F, Shalizi Z (2007) Balancing expenditures on of and to climate change: an exploration of issues relevant to developing countries (August 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4299. Available at SSRN:
  86. Lefevre B (2007) La soutenabilité environnementale des transports urbains dans les villes du Sud le couple “transport-usage des sols” au coeur des dynamiques urbaines, PhD Thesis, ENSMPGoogle Scholar
  87. Lemonsu A, Masson V (2002) Simulation of a summer urban breeze over Paris. Bound-Layer Meteorol 104(3):463–490CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Lempert RJ, Collins MT (2007) Managing the risk of uncertain thresholds responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal 27:1009–1026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Lempert RJ, Groves DG, Popper SW, Bankes SC (2006) A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Manage Sci 52(4):514–528CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Létard V, Flandre H, Lepeltier S (2004) La France et les Français face à la canicule: les leçons d’une crise. Rapport d’information du Sénat n° 195. Available (in French) at
  91. Lindell MK, Prater CS (2003) Assessing community impacts of natural disasters. Nat Hazards Rev 4:176–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Lothian A (2006) Coastal landscape assessment. Coast to Coast Conference, Melbourne, 23 May.Google Scholar
  93. Mack A (2005) Human security report. Oxford University Press, VIII, Oxford.
  94. Mairie de Paris (2007) Plan Climat de Paris. Accessed 25 Nov 2007
  95. Manning M, Petit M, Easterling D, Murphy J, Patwardhan A, Rogner H, Swart R, Yohe G (2004) IPCC workshop report: describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of risk and of options. IPCC, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  96. Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Focks DA (1997) Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Climatic Change 35(2):145–156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Masson V (2000) A physically-based scheme for the urban energy budget in atmospheric models. Bound-Layer Meteorol 94(3):357–397CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. MCCCATF (Miami-Dade County Climate Change Advisory Task Force) (2008) Second report and initial recommendations presented to the Miami-Dade board of county commissioners. Miami-Dade County, MiamiGoogle Scholar
  99. McKenzie Hedger M, Connell R, Bramwell P (2006) Bridging the gap: empowering decision-making for adaptation through the UK Climate impacts programme. Clim Policy 6:201–215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Mendelsohn R (2003) The impact of climate change on energy expenditures in California. In: Thomas C, Howard R (eds) Global climate change and California: potential implications for ecosystems, health, and the economy. Appendix XI, Sacramento, CA, p 35Google Scholar
  101. Mendelsohn R, Morrison W, Schlesinger ME, Andronova NG (2000) Country-specific market impacts of climate change. Climatic Change 45(3–4):553–569(17)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Miller NL, Jin J, Hayhoe K, Auffhammer M (2007) Climate change, extreme heat, and energy demand in California. California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research Program. CEC-500-2007-023Google Scholar
  103. Morgenstern RD (2000) Baseline issues in the estimation of the ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. Paper presented at the IPCC expert workshop on assessing the ancillary benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies, Washington DC, March 27–29Google Scholar
  104. Morrison W, Mendelsohn R (1999) The impact of global warming on US energy expenditures. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 209–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Murray C, Lopez A (1996) The global burden of disease. Harvard University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  106. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group iii of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 599Google Scholar
  107. Nicholls R, Leatherman S (1996) Adapting to sea-level rise: relative sea-level trends to 2100 for the United States. Coast Manage 24(4):301–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  108. Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ (2006) Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364:1073–1095CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  109. Nordhaus WD (2006) The economics of hurricanes in the United States, prepared for the snowmass workshop on abrupt and catastrophic climate change. Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association, SnowmassGoogle Scholar
  110. Nordhaus W, Boyer J (2000) Roll the DICE again: the economics of global warning. MIT PressGoogle Scholar
  111. OECD (2001) Ancillary benefits and costs of greenhouse gas Mitigation. OECD, ParisGoogle Scholar
  112. OECD (2008a) OECD environmental outlook to 2030. OECD, ParisCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. OECD (2008b) Cost of environmental policyGoogle Scholar
  114. OECD (2009a) Forthcoming, economic aspects of adaptation to climate change: integrated assessment modelling of adaptation costs and benefits. OECD, ParisGoogle Scholar
  115. OECD (2009b) forthcoming. OECD 2009 forthcoming. OECD policy guidance on integrating climate adaptation into development cooperation. OECD, ParisGoogle Scholar
  116. Office of Science and Technology (2002) Foresight futures 2020: revised scenarios and guidance. Department of Trade and Industry, LondonGoogle Scholar
  117. Oke TR (1987) Boundary layer climates. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  118. Okuyama Y (2003) Economics of natural disasters: a critical review. Research Paper 2003–12, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, USAGoogle Scholar
  119. Okuyama Y (2004) Modeling spatial economic impacts of an earthquake: input–output approaches. Disaster Prev Manag 13:297–306CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. Olesen JE, Carter TR, Díaz-Ambrona CH, Fronzek S, Heidmann T, Hickler T, Holt T, Minguez MI, Morales P, Palutikof JP, Quemada M, Ruiz-Ramos M, Rubæk GH, Sau F, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007) Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81:123–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Oppenheimer M, O’Neill BC, Webster M, Agrawala S (2007) Climate change: the limits of consensus. Science 317(5844):1505. doi: 10.1126/science.1144831 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  122. Paskoff R (1994) Les littoraux. Impact des aménagements sur leur évolution. Géographie, MassonGoogle Scholar
  123. Pigeon G, Lemonsu A, Long N, Barrié J, Masson V, Durand P (2006) Urban thermodynamic island in a coastal city analysed from an optimized surface network. Bound-Layer Meteorol 120(2):315–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. Pigeon G, Moscicki MA, Voogt JA, Masson V (2008) Simulation of fall and winter surface energy balance over a dense urban area using the TEB scheme. Meteorol Atmos Phys 102:159–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. Rahmstorf (2007) Sea-level rise a semi-empirical approach to projecting future. Science 315:368–370. doi: 10.1126/science.1135456 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. Ranger N, Hallegatte S, Bhattacharya S, Bachu M, Priya S, Dhore K, Rafique F, Mathur P, Naville N, Henriet F, Herweijer C, Pohit S, Corfee-Morlot J (2011) An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2 Google Scholar
  127. Reilly J, Graham J, Hrubovcak J (2001) Agriculture: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  128. Reilly J, Paltsev S, Felzer B, Wang X, Kicklighter D, Melillo J, Prinn R, Sarofim M, Sokolov A, Wang C (2007) Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone. Energy Policy 35:5370–5383CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. Rose A, Liao S-Y (2005) Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. J Reg Sci 45:75–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  130. Rose A, Benavides J, Chang SE, Szczesniak P, Lim D (1997) The regional economic impact of an earthquake: direct and indirect effects of electricity life-line disruptions. J Reg Sci 37:437–458CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  131. Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  132. Rousseau (2005) Analyse fine des surmortalités pendant la canicule 2003: L’événement météorologique de la nuit du 11 au 12 août 2003 en Île-de-France, La Météorologie, ISSN 0026–1181, No. 51, 2005, pp 16–22Google Scholar
  133. Sachs A (2007) The influence of ENSO on hurricane damages: a new methodology for pricing risk. PhD ThesisGoogle Scholar
  134. Salehyan I, Gleditsch KS (2006) Refugee flows and the spread of civil war. Int Organ 60, no.2 (2000):335–366Google Scholar
  135. Scawthorn C, Flores P, Blais N, Seligson H, Tate E, Chang S, Mifflin E, Thomas W, Murphy J, Jones C, Lawrence M (2006) HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology. II. Damage and loss assessment. Natural Hazards Rev 7(2):72–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  136. Schneider SH, Duriseti KK, Azar C (2000) Costing nonlinearities, surprises and irreversible events. Pac Asian J Energy 10(1):81–91Google Scholar
  137. Schwartz P (1996) The art of the long view. Double Day, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  138. Scialabba N (1998) integrated coastal management and agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Fao guidelines. Environment and Natural Resources Service, FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  139. Spittlehouse DL, Stewart RB (2003) Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC J Ecosyst Manag 4(1):1–11Google Scholar
  140. Stewart F, Fitzgerald EVK (2001) War and underdevelopment. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  141. Suhrke A (1997) Environmental Degradation, Migration, and the Potential for Violent Conflict. In: Gleditsch NP et al (eds) Conflict and the environment. Kluwer Academic, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  142. Thurston GD, Lippmann M (1997) Summertime haze air pollution and children with asthma. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 155(1997):654–660Google Scholar
  143. Tierney KJ (1995) Impacts of recent U.S. disasters on businesses: the 1993 Midwest Floods and the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware.Google Scholar
  144. Tierney K (1997) Business impacts of the northridge earthquake. J Conting Crisis Manage 5:87–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  145. Tierney K (2006) Social inequality, hazards, and disasters. In: Daniels RJ, Kettl DF, Kunreuther H, Gutmann A (eds) On risk and disaster: lessons from Hurricane Katrina. University of Pennsylvania PressGoogle Scholar
  146. Tol RSJ (2002a) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: benchmark estimates. Environ Resour Econ 21(1):47–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  147. Tol RSJ (2002b) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part II. Dynamic estimates. Environ Resour Econ 21(2):135–160Google Scholar
  148. Tol RSJ (2005) Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods. Environ Sci Policy 8(6):572–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  149. Tol RSJ, Fankhauser S, Smith JB (1998) The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the impact literature? Glob Environ Change 8(2):109–123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  150. Tol RSJ, Downing TE, Kuik OJ, Smith JB (2004) Distributional aspects of climate change impacts. Glob Environ Change Part A 14(3):259–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  151. Toronto Environment Office (2008) Ahead of the storm: preparing Toronto for climate change. Retrieved 11/25, 2208, from
  152. United Nations Environment Programme. DEWA/GRID-Europe (2004) Environment alert bulletin. Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in EuropeGoogle Scholar
  153. United Nations Program for Development (UNDP) (1994) Human development report 1994. Oxford et New York, Oxford University Press 23Google Scholar
  154. US EPA (2000) Projecting land-use change: a summary of models for assessing the effects of community growth and change on land-use patterns, EPA/600/R-00/098.Google Scholar
  155. Van Landingham MJ (2007) Murder rates in New Orleans, 2004 to 2006. PhD, MPH. Tulane University, New OrleansGoogle Scholar
  156. Viscusi W, Aldy JE (2003) The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world. J Risk Uncertain, Springer 27(1):5–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  157. Webb G, Tierney K, Dahlhamer J (2002) Predicting long-term business recovery from disaster: a comparison of the Lome Prieta earthquake and hurricane Andrew. University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center, Preliminary paper 328Google Scholar
  158. Wegener M (1994) Operational urban models: state of the art. J Am Plan Assoc 60(1):17–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  159. Weiss KB, Sullivan SD, Lyttle CS (2000) Trends in the cost of illness for asthma in the United States, 1985–1994*1. J Allergy Clin Immunol 106(3):493–499CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  160. Weitzman ML (2007) Structural uncertainty and the value of statistical life in the economics of catastrophic climate change. NBERGoogle Scholar
  161. West CT, Lenze DG (1994) Modeling the regional impact of natural disasters and recovery: a general framework and an application to hurricane Andrew. Int Reg Sci Rev 17:121–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  162. Yohe G, Neumann J, Ameden H (1995) Assessing the economic cost of greenhouse induced sea level rise: methods and applications in support of a national survey. J Environ Econ Manage 29:S-78–S-97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  163. Yohe G, Neumann J, Marshall P, Ameden H (1996) The economic cost of greenhouse induced sea level rise in the United States. Climatic Change 32:387–410CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stéphane Hallegatte
    • 1
    • 2
  • Fanny Henriet
    • 3
  • Jan Corfee-Morlot
    • 3
  1. 1.Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le DéveloppementParisFrance
  2. 2.Ecole Nationale de la MétéorologieToulouseFrance
  3. 3.Organisation for Co-operation and Economic DevelopmentParisFrance

Personalised recommendations