Climatic Change

, Volume 103, Issue 1–2, pp 175–213 | Cite as

Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process

  • Matthias Jonas
  • M. Gusti
  • W. Jęda
  • Z. Nahorski
  • S. Nilsson
Article

Abstract

Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol’s first commitment period 2008–2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could “make or break” claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bun A (2008) The Kyoto policy process in perspective: long-term concentration targets versus short-term emission commitments. Interim Report IR-08-034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://wwws.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-08-034.pdf
  2. Bun A, Jonas M (2006) Preparatory signal detection for the EU-25 member states under EU burden sharing—advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2003). Interim Report IR-06-054, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-06-054.pdf
  3. Canadell JG et al (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104(47):18866–18870. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0702737104 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. COM (2006) Report from the commission. Assigned amount report of the European union. Report COM(2006) 799 final, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, Belgium (15 December). http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2006:0799:FIN:EN:PDF
  5. EEA (2009) Annual European community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2007 and inventory report 2009. Technical Report No 4, European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-community-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009
  6. FCCC (1992) United Nations convention on climate change. Document FCCC/INFORMAL/84, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
  7. FCCC (1996) Report of the conference of the parties on its second session, held at Geneva from 8 to 19 July 1996. Addendum. Part two: action taken by the conference of the parties at its second session. Document FCCC/CP/1996/15/Add.1, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop2/15a01.pdf
  8. FCCC (1998) Report of the conference of the parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997. Addendum. Part two: action taken by the conference of the parties at its third session. Document FCCC/CP/1997/7/Add.1, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf
  9. FCCC (1999) Report of the conference of the parties on its fourth session, held at Buenos Aires from 2 to 14 November 1998. Addendum. Part two: action taken by the conference of the parties at its fourth session. Document FCCC/CP/1998/16/Add.1, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop4/16a01.pdf
  10. FCCC (2009) National inventory submissions 2008. Website of the secretariat to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php. Accessed 16 November 2009
  11. Gillenwater M et al (2007) Practical policy applications of uncertainty analysis for national greenhouse gas inventories. In: Lieberman D et al (eds) Accounting for climate change. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories—verification, compliance, and trading. Springer, Dordrecht (Hardbound edition of Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 7(4–5):31–54). doi: 10.1007/s11267-006-9118-2
  12. Gusti M, Jęda W (2002) Carbon management: a new dimension of future carbon research. Interim Report IR-02-006, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-02-006.pdf
  13. Hamal K (2010) Reporting GHG emissions: change in uncertainty and its relevance for the detection of emission changes. Interim Report IR-10-003, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-10-003.pdf
  14. Hamal K, Jonas M (2008a) Preparatory signal detection for the EU-25 member states under EU burden sharing—advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2004). Interim Report IR-08-036, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-08-036.pdf
  15. Hamal K, Jonas M (2008b) Preparatory signal detection for the EU-27 member states under EU burden sharing—advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2005). Interim Report IR-08-037, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-08-037.pdf
  16. IPCC (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, vol 1: general guidance and reporting. In: Eggleston HS et al (eds) National greenhouse gas inventories programme. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html
  17. IPIECA (2007) Greenhouse gas emissions estimation and inventories. Addressing uncertainty and accuracy. Summary report, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, London. http://www.ipieca.org/activities/climate_change/downloads/publications/Uncertainty.pdf
  18. Jonas M, Nilsson S (2007) Prior to economic treatment of emissions and their uncertainties under the Kyoto Protocol: scientific uncertainties that must be kept in mind. In: Lieberman D et al (eds) Accounting for climate change. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories—verification, compliance, and trading. Springer, Dordrecht (Hardbound edition of Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 7(4–5):75–91). doi: 10.1007/s11267-006-9113-7
  19. Jonas M et al (1999) Verification times underlying the Kyoto Protocol: global benchmark calculations. Interim Report IR-99-062, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-062.pdf
  20. Jonas M et al (2004a) Preparatory signal detection for annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol—a lesson for the post-Kyoto policy process. Interim Report IR-04-024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-024.pdf
  21. Jonas M et al (2004b) Preparatory signal detection for the EU member states under the EU burden sharing—advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2001). Interim Report, IR-04-029, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-029.pdf
  22. Jonas M et al (2004c) Preparatory signal detection for the EU member states under the EU burden sharing—advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2002). Interim Report, IR-04-046, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-046.pdf
  23. Lieberman D et al (2007) Accounting for climate change: introduction. Springer, Dordrecht (Hardbound edition of Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 7(4–5):1–4). doi: 10.1007/s11267-006-9120-8
  24. Nahorski Z et al (2003) Coping with uncertainty in verification of the Kyoto obligations. In: Studzinski J et al (eds) Zastosowania informatyki i analizy systemowej w zarzadzaniu (Application of computer sciences and systems analysis in management). Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, pp 305–317 (in English)Google Scholar
  25. Nahorski Z et al (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol: rules for uncertain inventories. In: Lieberman D et al (eds) Accounting for climate change. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories—verification, compliance, and trading. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands (Hardbound edition of Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 7(4–5):119–138). doi: 10.1007/s11267-006-9112-8
  26. Penman J et al (eds) (2000) Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/
  27. Penman J et al (eds) (2003) Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm
  28. Watson RT et al (eds) (2000) Land use, land-use change, and forestry. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/land_use/index.htm Google Scholar
  29. WBGU (2003) Climate protection strategies for the 21st century: Kyoto and beyond. Special Report, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Bremerhaven, Germany, ISBN: 3-936191-04-2. http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.html

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Matthias Jonas
    • 1
  • M. Gusti
    • 1
    • 2
  • W. Jęda
    • 3
  • Z. Nahorski
    • 3
  • S. Nilsson
    • 1
  1. 1.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.Lviv Polytechnic National UniversityLvivUkraine
  3. 3.Systems Research InstitutePolish Academy of SciencesWarsawPoland

Personalised recommendations