Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 108, Issue 3, pp 471–483 | Cite as

Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-alpine ecosystems

  • Blas BenitoEmail author
  • Juan Lorite
  • Julio Peñas
Article

Abstract

In this paper we study an isolated high-mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Iberian Peninsula) to identify the potential trends in the habitat-suitability of five key species (i.e. species that domain a given vegetation type and drive the conditions for appearance of many other species) corresponding to four vegetation types occupying different altitudinal belts, that might result from a sudden climatic shift. We used topographical variables and downscaled climate warming simulations to build a high-resolution spatial database (10 m) according to four different climate warming scenarios for the twenty-first century. The spatial changes in the suitable habitat were simulated using a species distribution model, in order to analyze altitudinal shifts and potential habitat loss of the key species. Thus, the advance and receding fronts of known occurrence locations were computed by introducing a new concept named differential suitability, and potential patterns of substitution among the key species were established. The average mean temperature trend show an increase of 4.8°C, which will induce the vertical shift of the suitable habitat for all the five key species considered at an average rate of 11.57 m/year. According to the simulations, the suitable habitat for the key species inhabiting the summit area, where most of the endemic and/or rare species are located, may disappear before the middle of the century. The other key species considered show moderate to drastic suitable habitat loss depending on the considered scenario. Climate warming should provoke a strong substitution dynamics between species, increasing spatial competition between both of them. In this study, we introduce the application of differential suitability concept into the analysis of potential impact of climate change, forest management and environmental monitoring, and discuss the limitations and uncertainties of these simulations.

Keywords

Species Distribution Model Glob Change Biol Altitudinal Belt SRES Scenario Juniperus Communis 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Araújo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22:42–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Araújo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, Hannah L, Williams PH (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Glob Change Biol 10:1618–1626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob Change Biol 11(9):1504–1513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Austin M (2007) Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecol Model 200:1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Benito Garzón M, Sánchez de Dios R, Sáinz-Ollero H (2008) Effects of climate change on the distributions of Iberian forests. Appl Veg Sci 11:169–178CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blanca G, Cueto M, Martínez-Lirola MJ, Molero-Mesa J (1998) Threatened vascular flora of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain). Biol Conserv 85:269–285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Broenninmann O, Thuiller W, Hughes G, Midgley GF, Alkemade JMR, Guisan A (2006) Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants’ vulnerability to global change? Glob Change Biol 12:1079–1093CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Brunet M, Casado MJ, Castro M, Galan P, Lopez JA, Martín JM, Pastor A, Petisco E, Ramos P, Ribalaygua J, Rodriguez E, Torres L (2007) Generación de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático para España. Ministry of Environment, Government of Spain, MadridGoogle Scholar
  9. Castro J, Zamora R, Hódar JA, Gómez JM, Gómez-Aparicio L (2004) Benefits of using shrubs as nurse plants for reforestation in Mediterranean mountains: a 4-year study. Restor Ecol 12(3):352–358CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptative responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292:673–679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Douglas T, Critchley D, Park G (1996) The deintensification of terraced agricultural land near Trevélez, Sierra Nevada. Spain. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 5(4/5):258–270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudık M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann LG, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton JMcC, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson KS, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberon J, Williams S, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fitzpatrick M, Gove A, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2008) Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Glob Change Biol 14:1337–1352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Flato GM, Boer GJ (2001) Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 28:195–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. García D, Zamora R, Hódar JA, Gómez JM (1999) Age structure of Juniperus communis L. in the Iberian peninsula: conservation of remnant populations in mediterranean mountains. Biol Conserv 87(2):215–220CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ghalambor CK, McKay JK, Carroll SP, Reznick DN (2007) Adaptive versus non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity and the potential for contemporary adaptation in new environments. Funct Ecol 21:394–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Giorgi F, Hurrell JW, Marinucci MR, Beniston M (1997) Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: a model study. J Climate 10:288–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gómez JM, García D, Zamora R (2003) Impact of vertebrate acorn- and seedling-predators on a Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica forest. For Ecol Manag 180:125–134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Grabherr G, Gottfried M, Pauli H (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369:448CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. GRASS Development Team (2008) Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software, version 6.3.0. http://grass.osgeo.org
  21. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2006) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993–1009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Glob Change Biol 12:2272–2281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol Evol 15:56–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hulme M, Sheard N (1999) Climate change scenarios for the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, UKGoogle Scholar
  26. IPCC, Third Special Report (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  27. Jaynes ET (1957) Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics. Phys Rev 106:620–630CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37:173–199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kullman L (2002) Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shurb species in the Swedish Scandes. J Ecol 90:68–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lamont BB, Connell SW (1996) Biogeography of Banksia in southwestern Australia. J Biogeogr 23:295–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lorite J, Gómez F, Mota JF, Valle F (2007a) Orophilous plant communities of Baetic range in Andalusia (south-eastern Spain): priority altitudinal-islands for conservation. Phytocoenologia 37(3–4):625–644CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lorite J, Navarro FB, Valle F (2007b) Estimation of threatened orophytic flora and priority of its conservation in the Baetic range (S. Spain). Plant Biosyst 141(1):1–14Google Scholar
  33. Lorite J, Salazar C, Peñas J, Valle F (2008) Phytosociological review on the forests of Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Acta Bot Gall 155(2):219–233Google Scholar
  34. Mann ME (2007) Climate over the past two millennia. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 35:11–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26(6):759–762CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Médail F, Quézel P (1999) Biodiversity hotspots in the Mediterranean Basin: setting global conservation priorities. Conserv Biol 13(6):1510–1513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Mitchell TD, Hulme M (1999) Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty. Prog Phys Geogr 23(1):57–78Google Scholar
  38. Murphy J (2000) Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques. Int J Climatol 20:489–501CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ninyerola M, Pons X, Roure JM (2000) A methodological approach of climatological modelling of air temperature and precipitation through GIS techniques. Int J Climatol 20:1823–1841CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Nogués-Bravo D, Araújo MB, Lasanta T, López Moreno JI (2008) Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century. Ambio 37:280–285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Pearman PB, Guisan A, Broennimann O, Randin CF (2008) Niche dynamics in space and time. Trends Ecol Evol 23(3):149–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Phillips S, Dudik M (2008) Modelling of species distribution with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31(2):161–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Phillips S, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Prinzing A, Durka W, Klotz S, Brandl R (2001) The niche of higher plants: evidence for phylogenetic conservatism. Proc R Soc Lond 268:2383–2389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. R Development Core Team (2008) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0. http://www.R-project.org
  46. Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dumenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institute Report 218, Hamburg, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  47. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Clim Change 50:77–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Thomas CD, Franco AM, Hill JK (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends Ecol Evol 21:415–416CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes M, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102(23):8245–8250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Wardle P, Coleman MC (1992) Evidence of rising upper limits of four native New Zealand forest trees. N Z J Bot 30:303–314Google Scholar
  52. Williams PH, Hannah L, Andelman S, Midgley G, Araújo MB, Hughes G, Manne L, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson C (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conserv Biol 19:1063–1074CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Botany, Sciences FacultyUniversity of GranadaGranadaSpain

Personalised recommendations