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Climatic Change

, 98:177 | Cite as

The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change

  • Anabela CarvalhoEmail author
  • Mike D. Flannigan
  • Kim A. Logan
  • Lynn M. Gowman
  • Ana Isabel Miranda
  • Carlos Borrego
Article

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the impact of future climate change on fire activity in 12 districts across Portugal. Using historical relationships and the HIRHAM (High Resolution Hamburg Model) 12 and 25 km climate simulations, we assessed the fire weather and subsequent fire activity under a 2 × CO2 scenario. We found that the fire activity prediction was not affected by the spatial resolution of the climate model used (12 vs. 25 km). Future area burned is predicted to increase 478% for Portugal as a whole, which equates to an increase from 1.4% to 7.8% of the available burnable area burning annually. Fire occurrence will also see a dramatic increase (279%) for all of Portugal. There is significant spatial variation within these results; the north and central districts of the country generally will see larger increases in fire activity.

Keywords

Wildland Fire Southern District Fire Weather Index Canadian Boreal Forest Fine Fuel Moisture Code 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anabela Carvalho
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mike D. Flannigan
    • 2
  • Kim A. Logan
    • 2
  • Lynn M. Gowman
    • 2
  • Ana Isabel Miranda
    • 1
  • Carlos Borrego
    • 1
  1. 1.CESAM & Department of Environment and PlanningUniversity of AveiroAveiroPortugal
  2. 2.Canadian Forest ServiceGreat Lakes Forestry CentreSault Ste MarieCanada

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