Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 97, Issue 1–2, pp 253–283 | Cite as

Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz and Buyuk Menderes Basins

  • Sevinc OzkulEmail author
Article

Abstract

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) discloses that the global climate system is undoubtedly warming. Observations have shown that many natural systems, including hydrologic systems and water resources, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Eventually, these effects will have to be considered in water resources planning and management. Accordingly, need is indicated to evaluate the impact of expected climate change on hydrology and water resources at regional and local levels. The presented paper summarizes the results of the sub-project studies under the United Nations Development Program-Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) Project. The studies cover the generation of climate change scenarios, modeling of basin hydrology, and testing the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature. Simulation results of the water budget model have shown that nearly 20% of the surface waters in the studied basins will be reduced by the year of 2030. By the years 2050 and 2100, this percentage will increase up to 35% and more than 50%, respectively. The decreasing surface water potential of the basins will cause serious water stress problems among water users, mainly being agricultural, domestic and industrial water users.

Keywords

Turkey Emission Scenario Climate Change Scenario Diurnal Temperature Range Climate Change Effect 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arnell NW (1998) Climate change and water resources in Britain. Clim Change 39:83–110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bayazit M, Cigizoglu HK, Onoz B (2002) Turkiye akarsularında trend analizi (Trend analysis in Turkey’s rivers) Civil Engineering Association. The Journal of Turkey Engineering News 47:8–10Google Scholar
  3. Bergström S, Carlsson B, Gardelin M et al (2001) Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden–assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling. Clim Res 16(2):101–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chang H, Evans BM, Easterling DR (2001) The effects of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading. Journal of American Water Resources Association 37(4):863–985CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chiew FHS, McMahon TA (2002) Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow. Hydrol Process 16(6):1235–1245CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  7. Cigizoglu HK, Bayazıt M, Onoz B (2005) Trends in the maximum mean and low flows of Turkish rivers. J Hydrometeorol 6:280–290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Cohen SJ (1986) Impacts of CO2- induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin. Clim Change 8:135–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Coker AM, Thompson PM, Smith DI, Penning-Rowsell EC (1989) The impact of climate change on coastal zone management in Britain: a preliminary analysis. In: Conference on climate and water, vol 2. Academy of Finland, Hlesinki, pp 148–160Google Scholar
  10. Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Giorgi F, Gao X (2007) Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot.Geophys Res Lett 34:L11706. doi: 10.1029/2007GL030000 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. FEEM (2005) Del Corpo B, Gasparino U, Malizia W, Pinelli D (eds) D01.1 Requirements and constraints report. INCO-CT-2004–509091 OPTIMA (Optimisation for Sustainable Water Resources Management) project deliverable. http://www.ess.co.at/OPTIMA/PUBS/D01.pdf. Accessed 18 July 2007
  12. Fistikoglu O, Harmancioglu N (2001) Yukarı Gediz Havzasında Aylık Su Bütçesi Modeli Uygulaması (Application of the monthly water budget model in the upper Gediz Basin). In: Ozkul S, Baran T, Harmancioglu N (eds) Proceedings of 3rd national hydrology congress, SUMER, Izmir, pp 269–278Google Scholar
  13. Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M, Moriondo M et al (2005) Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global temperature rise, A report for WWFGoogle Scholar
  14. Gleick PH (1987) The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impacts assessment: modeling the Sacramento Basin. Water Resour Res 23:1049–1061CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Holt CP, Jones AA (1996) Equilibrium and transient global warming scenario implications for water resources in Wales. Water-Resour Bull 32:711–722Google Scholar
  16. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ et al (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  17. IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, core writing team. In: Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p 104Google Scholar
  18. IPCC (2007b) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  19. Jones JAA (1999) Climate change and sustainable water resources: placing the threat of global warming in perspective. Hydrol Sci J 44(4):541–557CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jones JAA, Liu CM, Woo M-K, Kung H-T (eds) (1996) Regional hydrological response to climate change. Kluwer, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  21. Kahya E, Kalayci S (2004) Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. J Hydrol 289:128–144CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Karaca M, Dalfes N, Sen O (2006) Climate change scenarios for Turkey: preliminary studies under the UNDP GEF project for preparation of FNC of TurkeyGoogle Scholar
  23. Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW et al (2007) Freshwater resources and their management. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 173–210Google Scholar
  24. Kunz RP (1993) Techniques to assess possible impacts of climate change in Southern Africa. M.Sc. dissertation, Dept. of Agricultural Engineering, University of NatalGoogle Scholar
  25. Leavesley GH (1994) Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources–a review. Clim Change 28:159–177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Lettenmaier DP, Gan TY (1990) Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming. Water Resour Res 26:69–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Limbrick KJ, Whitehead PG, Butterfield D, Reynard N (2000) Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the River Kennet at Theale, Berkshire, south-central England, UK: an application and evaluation of the new semi-distributed model, INCA. Sci Total Environ 251/252:539–555CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Casty C et al (2006) Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: a review. In: Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R (eds) The Mediterranean climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues. Elsevier, pp 27–148Google Scholar
  29. Malkoc Y, Yildiz M (2002) Türkiye akarsu havzaları ve hidrolojik kuraklık analizi (Hydrological drought analysis of Turkish river basins). Electrical Works Authority (EIEI) Press, Ankara, p 185Google Scholar
  30. Markoff MS, Cullen AC (2008) Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower. Clim Change 87:451–469. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9306-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA et al (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 881Google Scholar
  32. Middelkoop H, Daamen K, Gellens D et al (2001) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine Basin. Clim Change 49(1–2):105–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Miller BA (1989) Global climate change—implications of large water resource systems. Proceedings of the 1989 National conference on hydraulic engineering, New Orleans, LouisianaGoogle Scholar
  34. Mimikou MA, Baltas E, Varanou E, Pantazis K (2000) Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators. J Hydrol 234:95–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. MOEF (The Ministry of Environment and Foresty) of Turkey (2007) Apak G, Ubay B (eds) First national communication of Turkey on climate change. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/turnc1.pdf. Accessed 04 April 2008
  36. MOEF-GDOEIAP (Ministry of Environment and Foresty-General Directorate of Environmental İmpact Assessment and Planning) (2004) Official web site. http://www.cedgm.gov.tr/dosya/cevreatlasi.htm. Accessed 9 April 2008
  37. Müller-Wohlfeil D-I, Bürger G, Lahmer W (2000) Response of a river catchment to climatic change: application of expanded downscaling to Northern Germany. Clim Change 47(1–2):61–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Nakicenovic N et al (2000) SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios): a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 599. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm. Accessed 4 June 2008Google Scholar
  39. New MG, Hulme M, Jones PD (1999) Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability, part I: development of a 1961–1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Climate 12:829–856CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Onol B, Semazzi F (2006) Regional impact on climate change on water resources over Eastern Mediterranean: Euphrates-Tigris Basin. 18th Conference on climate variability and change, 86th AMS Meeting, USAGoogle Scholar
  41. Paeth H, Hense A (2005) Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions. Meteorol Z 14(3):329–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20:2011–2026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. PDA (Provincial Directorate of Agriculture) (2008) Official web site. http://www.aydintarim.gov.tr/aydinili.htm. Accessed 9 April 2008
  44. Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28(2):126–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Prudhomme C, Jakob D, Svensson C (2003) Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments. J Hydrol 277(1–2):1–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S et al (2007) Cilmate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  47. Raper SCB, Wigley TML, Warrick RA (1996) Global sea level rise: past and future. In: Milliman J, Haq BU (eds) Sea-level rise and coastal subsidence: causes, consequences and strategies. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, pp 11–45Google Scholar
  48. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Schlesinger ME, Mitchell JFB (1990) Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results. Max-Planck-Institute für Meterologie, Hamburg, Report No. 47Google Scholar
  49. Sene KJ, Tate EL, Farquharson FAK (2001) Sensitivity studies of the impacts of climate change on White Nile flows. Clim Change 50(1–2):177–208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Snover AK, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP (2003) Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(11):1513–1518CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. SUMER (2005) D05.1: regional case study: Gediz River Basin, Turkey. ICA3-CT-2002–10006 SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) project deliverable. http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/DELIVERABLES/D05.1–1.doc. Accessed 18 July 2007
  52. SUMER (2006) Project report of ‘Modeling for climate change effects in the Gediz and Buyuk Menderes River Basins. Preliminary studies under the UNDP GEF project for preperation of FNC of Turkey’, IzmirGoogle Scholar
  53. Tatlı H, Dalfes HN, Mentes SS (2004a) A statistical downscaling method for monthly total precipitation over Turkey. Int J Climatol 24:161–180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Tatlı H, Dalfes HN, Mentes SS (2004b) Near-surface air temperature variability over Turkey and its connection to the large-scale upper air circulations via multivariate techniques. Int J Climatol 25(3):331–350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Tegart WJ, Sheldon GW, Griffiths DC (eds) (1990) Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment report. Australian Government Publishing Service, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  56. Topaloglu F (2006) Regional trend detection of Turkish river flows. Nord Hydrol 37(2):165–182Google Scholar
  57. Turkes M (1998) Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and Southern Oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. Int J Climatol 18:649–680CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Turkes M (2002) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and aridity index series of Turkey. In: Bolle H-J (ed) Mediterranean climate variability and trends, regional climate studies. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 181–213Google Scholar
  59. Turkes M, Erlat E (2003) Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2000. Int J Climatol 23:1771–1796CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Turkes M, Erlat E (2005) Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 81:45–69CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Turkes M, Sumer UM (2004) Spatial and temporal patterns of trends and variability in diurnal temperature ranges of Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 77:195–227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Turkes M, Sumer UM, Demir I (2002a) Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey, for the period 1929–1999. Int J Climatol 22:947–977CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Turkes M, Sumer UM, Kilic G (2002b) Persistence and periodicity in the precipitation series of Turkey and associations with 500 hPa geopotential heights. Clim Res 21:59–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Wigley TML (2003) MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1: technical manual. National Center for Atmospheric Research, BoulderGoogle Scholar
  65. Wilby RL, Charles SP, Zorita E et al (2004) Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. http://ncsp.va-network.org/UserFiles/File/PDFs/Resource%20Center/Climate%20Scenarios/IPCC_Guidelines_SDSM.pdf. Accessed 5 January 2009
  66. WMO (2000) Detecting trends and other changes in hydrological data. WCDMP 45, WMO TD 1013, p 157Google Scholar
  67. Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimations and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Gyalistras D et al (2003a) Interannual summer air tempera ture variability over Greece and its connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean SSTs 1950–1999. Clim Dyn 20:537–554. doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0291-3 Google Scholar
  69. Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2003b) Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs. Clim Dyn 20:723–739. doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0304-x Google Scholar
  70. Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and predictability. Clim Dyn 23:63–78. doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0422-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Burkard R, Patrikas I, Maheras P (2000) Connection between the large scale 500 Pa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during winter time. Clim Res 14:129–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s ρ tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S et al (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res 110:D22104. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006181 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Water Resources Management Research Center (SUMER, Izmir, Turkey)Dokuz Eylul UniversityBucaTurkey

Personalised recommendations