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Climatic Change

, Volume 90, Issue 4, pp 413–441 | Cite as

Sensitivity of European glaciers to precipitation and temperature – two case studies

  • Daniel Steiner
  • Andreas Pauling
  • Samuel U. Nussbaumer
  • Atle Nesje
  • Jürg Luterbacher
  • Heinz Wanner
  • Heinz J. Zumbühl
Article

Abstract

A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier.

Keywords

Spring Precipitation Precipitation Reconstruction Glacier Mass Balance Equilibrium Line Altitude Glacier Advance 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daniel Steiner
    • 1
    • 2
  • Andreas Pauling
    • 5
  • Samuel U. Nussbaumer
    • 1
    • 2
  • Atle Nesje
    • 3
    • 4
  • Jürg Luterbacher
    • 1
    • 2
  • Heinz Wanner
    • 1
    • 2
  • Heinz J. Zumbühl
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Geography, Climatology and MeteorologyUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
  2. 2.Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCC) and National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR Climate)University of BernBernSwitzerland
  3. 3.Department of Earth ScienceUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
  4. 4.Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
  5. 5.Federal Office of Meteorology and ClimatologyMeteoSwissZürichSwitzerland

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