Using portfolio theory to guide reforestation and restoration under climate change scenarios
The general problem addressed by this study is that of designing a decision support system for planned adaptation to climate change that uses the principles of modern portfolio theory to minimise risk and maximise return of adaptive actions in an environment of deep uncertainty over future climate scenarios. Here we show how modern portfolio theory can use the results of a climate change impact model to select an optimal set of seed sources to be used in regenerating forests of white spruce in an environment of multiple, equally plausible future climates. This study shows that components of solutions are not selected to perform equally well across all plausible futures; but rather, that components are selected to specialise in particular climate scenarios. The innovation of this research rests in demonstrating that the powerful and widely used principles of quantifying and planning for risk and return in the uncertain environment of asset markets can be applied successfully to serve the objectives of planned adaptation to climate change.
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Houghton JT (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge Univ. Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Lesser MR, Parker WH (2004) Genetic variation in Picea Glauca for growth and phenological traits. Silvae Genet 53:141–148Google Scholar
- Lesser M, Parker WH (2006) Comparison of canonical correlation and regression based focal point seed zones of white spruce. Can J For Res 36:1572–1586Google Scholar
- McKenney D et al (2005) High-resolution climate change scenarios for North America. Technical Note No. 107. Canadian Forest Service Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, pp 5Google Scholar
- Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenham J et al (2000) Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change on emission scenarios. Cambridge Univ. Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Natural Resources Canada (2005) Regional, National, and International Climate Modeling. http://www.glfc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/landscape/climate_models_e.html. (visited May, 2005)
- Popper SW, Lempert RL, Bankes SC (2005) Shaping the future. Sci Am April:67–71Google Scholar
- Rehfeldt GE, Cheng CY, Spittlehouse DL, Hamilton DA (1999) Genetic responses to climate in pinus contorta: niche breadth, climate change, and reforestation. Ecol Monogr 69:375–407Google Scholar
- Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W (1996) A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J Biogeogr 23:203–233Google Scholar
- Toth FL et al (2001) ‘Decision-making Frameworks’. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 601–688Google Scholar