Climatic Change

, Volume 85, Issue 3–4, pp 433–451 | Cite as

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

  • Wei XiongEmail author
  • Robin Matthews
  • Ian Holman
  • Erda Lin
  • Yinglong Xu


With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China’s potential maize production at 50 × 50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO2 fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO2 fertilization effect, China’s maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today’s major maize planting areas. When the CO2 fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.


Climate Change Scenario Maize Yield Maize Production Crop Simulation Model Irrigate Maize 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wei Xiong
    • 1
    • 4
    Email author
  • Robin Matthews
    • 2
  • Ian Holman
    • 3
  • Erda Lin
    • 1
  • Yinglong Xu
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in AgricultureChinese Academy of Agriculture ScienceBeijingPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.The Macaulay InstituteAberdeenUK
  3. 3.School of Applied SciencesCranfield UniversityCranfieldUK
  4. 4.The Key Laboratory for Agro-environment & Climate ChangeMinistry of AgricultureBeijingChina

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